Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 122233
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

MIC025-122240-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-050712T2300Z/
CALHOUN MI-
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CALHOUN COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE SHOULD BE REPORTED TO 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. 

LAT...LON 4230 8554 4239 8545 4242 8544 4242 8531
      4238 8531 4220 8532 4227 8556

$$

MIC077-122300-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-050712T2300Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-
632 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR YORKVILLE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
EASTWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. 

LAT...LON 4230 8554 4239 8545 4242 8544 4242 8531
      4238 8531 4220 8532 4227 8556

$$

BEACHLER

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 122300
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

MIC077-122307-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-050712T2300Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-
657 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FROM 
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF KALAMAZOO COUNTY.

ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE REPORTED TO 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. 


LAT...LON 4230 8554 4239 8545 4242 8544 4242 8531
      4238 8531 4220 8532 4227 8556

$$

MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
355 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A VERTICALLY
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER SRN
IL/IN. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MI... ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
IN SW MI. CERTAINLY NOT A DROUGHT BUSTER THOUGH.

SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT AND LACK OF COLD AIR AT H5. PATTERN IS VERY STAGNANT
WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE JET STREAM SITUATED WELL
NORTH IN CANADA. LOCALLY HEAVY/BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES.

CLOUD COVER AND TEMP FCST IS DIFFICULT SINCE CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF
THE LOW IS NOT THICK AND EXPANSIVE. IN FACT A LARGE WEDGE OF
CLEARING AFFECTED THE SRN CWFA TODAY. THIS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH NEAR 90 AND A BAND OF SFC BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
I-94. MEANWHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN CWFA HAVE HELD NEAR 80 WHERE
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT. WILL GENERALLY RUN WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SE ACROSS THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL SHOWER THREAT IN
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME...WHEN DEW POINTS ARE
PROGGED TO LOWER DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND TIMING. SINCE THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS... WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SMALL CHANGES FOR COLLABORATION.

MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOVED INTO THE REGION BY
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS. THE REMNANTS SHOULD
PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY... RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE... NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THIS STAGNANT SETUP
UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MEADE IOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
528 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

LMZ843>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-131055-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
528 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL
CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECASTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY...AND SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OSTUNO MEADE MJS