Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 042155
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
555 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

MIC015-042205-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-050704T2215Z/
BARRY MI-
555 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BARRY COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4262 8512 4264 8509 4250 8509 4249 8508
      4243 8508 4241 8512 4241 8515 4239 8521
      4254 8532

$$

NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CLOUD COVER HOLDING IN OVER
ROUGHLY THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. BACKEDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECTED THIS AREA EARLIER IS NOW
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWFA. THE FOCUS FOR THIS EVENING IS A LINE
OF STORMS THAT IS NOW MOVING NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS LINE HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED 70 MPH WINDS OVER NRN IL.

AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO THE SRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING OVER 2500
J/KG WITH NO CIN PER THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE AS TEMPS ARE UP
AROUND 90 IN KAZO WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 67. THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM REMAINING INTACT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF
THE CWFA. ELSEWHERE...THE PCPN SHIELD NORTH OF THE BOW IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...HOWEVER AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT
DESTABILIZED UP NORTH DUE TO EARLIER CLOUDS AND PCPN...THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. WE WILL GO WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR ALL
AREAS WITH A SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH.

AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC FRONT OFF TO OUR
WEST SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA AS THE SFC WAVE
ALONG IT MOVES EAST. HOWEVER UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PCPN
CHCS WILL NOT BE NIL. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SCT TYPE WORDING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH POPS TAPERED HIGHEST TO
LOWEST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PCPN
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FROM THE
RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD.

THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXITING THE CWFA BY 12Z
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH
IT. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE OVER NRN MI AT 12Z AND MAKING A MOVE
TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS GENERATED (CAPES ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO 1000 J/KG
OR SO) WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEW POINTS STILL REMAINING
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 TO POP A FEW SHOWERS AND OR STORMS. WE
WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

THEN FOR WED...THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
CWFA...HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER LOWER
MI THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND
RESULTING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...WE HAVE ADDED A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
WED.

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL WX PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WX PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. DRY WX SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE STILL IN PLACE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

NJJ LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1148 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-051003-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
1148 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO ALMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE WINDS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RG NJJ