Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 261851
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

MIC005-261915-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-050626T1915Z/
ALLEGAN MI-
251 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALLEGAN COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHESHIRE CENTER...
OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALLEGAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OTSEGO...KELLOGG AND WATSON BY 315 PM EDT

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY FLOOD
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS
AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 4254 8612 4243 8610 4244 8568 4256 8569

$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.UPDATE..

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GOING ON AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN.  CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HOLDING BACK TEMPERATURES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96...WHERE CURRENT
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.  FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE 80.  A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXISTS AS A
RESULT WITH LAPS DATA SHOWING BETTER THAN 1000 J/KG CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR.  CIN VALUES ARE LOWEST JUST SOUTH OF KALAMAZOO COUNTY.
WOLCOTT IN PROFILER WAS NOT AVAILABLE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A
NORTHWARD LIFT OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  IT WILL
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG.  THE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL THETA E
DIFFERENCE WILL BECOME MORE THAN 20 DEG C AND THAT WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.  THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE.  CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW...THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AS WELL. THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  ANY CHANGE WILL
BE MINOR.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-270930-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
1240 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  A LAKE BREEZE MAY FOCUS THE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN ROUTE-31 AND US-131. ONCE DEVELOPED
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST.   ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM WILL CONTAIN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.  STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN WINDS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE.  DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCAL FLOODING OF
STREETS IN URBAN AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS IS SMALL CREEK OVERFLOWS.

OVERNIGHT...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ON SHORE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONCE THERE THEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING THE LANSING
TO MOUNT PLEASANT AREA BY SUNRISE. THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE
BUT ONCE AGAIN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEST MICHIGAN. IF THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT AS IT GETS CLOSER IN TIME.

ON BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID
90S IN MANY AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD WELL APPROACH 100F BY MID AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY SELF ACTIVATE IF A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPS IN
THEIR AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

WDM MJS