Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 141813
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

MIC005-081-141900-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-050614T1900Z/
KENT MI-ALLEGAN MI-
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALLEGAN AND
KENT COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND LAKE TO
CASCADE TO NEAR WAYLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF A QUARTER... 
WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF EASTERN AND LEONARD IN GRAND 
RAPIDS. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PARNELL...HOLY CORNERS AND GREEN LAKE BY 215 PM EDT
  WHITNEYVILLE AND GRATTAN BY 220 PM EDT
  MOSELEY BY 225 PM EDT
  LOWELL BY 235 PM EDT

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS GREATER THAN 60 MILES AN
HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4257 8581 4278 8574 4329 8553 4330 8532
      4278 8534 4276 8556 4243 8556 4243 8595

$$

RG

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 141841
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

MIC005-081-141851-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-050614T1900Z/
KENT MI-ALLEGAN MI-
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ALLEGAN AND KENT COUNTIES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4257 8581 4278 8574 4329 8553 4330 8532
      4278 8534 4276 8556 4243 8556 4243 8595

$$

RG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

.UPDATE...
FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS VERY MUCH HONED IN ON A SEVERE
THREAT. THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE SOUTHEAST IT APPEARS MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE. LOCATIONS
LIKE LANSING AND JACKSON WILL BE NEAR OR IN A MODERATE RISK WHEN THE
1630Z DAY ONE COMES OUT. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH / LAKE BREEZE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG HWY 131 SOUTH INTO INDIANA.
STORMS MAY FIRE ON THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EAST...OR ON THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
ILLINOIS. EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF TOUCHING
OFF CONVECTION. IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH / LAKE BREEZE DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG IT...THINGS MAY WAIT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...AGREE
WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AND THAT THE SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARD LANSING AND
JACKSON HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHEAST CWA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGER 5000FT WINDS
WILL BE (35KTS). PROFILE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORS
LINES AND BOWS AS OPPOSED TO SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE
THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. MID LEVEL
DRY AIR COMBINED WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...MAKE WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. KGRR VWP IS SHOWING 50 KT WINDS AT 10-11K FT.

IN THE UPDATE...MAINTAINED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LIKELY
WORDING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST. ADDED THE MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM IONIA AND ST.
JOHNS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1236 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
1236 PM TUE JUN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME OF THEM MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN A MODERATE
RISK INCLUDING HOMER...WILLIAMSTON AND JACKSON. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MARSHALL TO LANSING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 131 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SWEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A LINE AROUND 40 MPH.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
TODAY... THE BEST CHANCE IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 131. THE STORMS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 7 PM.

WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT... POSING A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT.  SWIMMERS AT LOCAL
BEACHES SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE A POSSIBILITY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY... AND
POTENTIALLY ON THURSDAY TOO. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT TO SMALL CRAFT
VENTURING OUT ON THE LAKE AS WELL AS TO SWIMMERS WHO MAY ENCOUNTER
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MEADE DUKE