Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WGUS73 KGRR 241419
FFSGRR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1018 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

MIC085-133-241430-
LAKE MI-OSCEOLA MI-
1018 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED...

AT 1015 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA. AS A RESULT THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 


$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
331 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NW TIP OF WI...TO THE WATERS OF
GREEN BAY...AND THEN DOWN THROUGH OUR CWFA. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP...TO JUST
NORTH OF KMSN...AND THEN TO THE SW TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FIRST
CHALLENGE WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE REVOLVES AROUND PCPN CHCS THIS
MORNING WITH THE STRONG WAA WITH A NOSE OF A LLJ BEGINNING TO AIM
TOWARD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE
TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND MOIST
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN PLACE. FINALLY...PCPN CHANCES WILL
THEN HAVE TO BE DETERMINED AS THE FRONT WOBBLES BACK AND FORTH WITH
VARIOUS WAVES MOVING ALONG IT.

FOR TODAY...A STRONG LLJ IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN MN AND CENTRAL WI
WITH THE NOSE OF IT OVER THE SRN U.P. AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
LLJ AHEAD OF A SFC WAVE OVER CENTRAL MN IS HELPING TO ADVECT WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DEW POINTS OF 15 TO 17C ARE
ADVECTING IN AT H850. THIS IS CAUSING THE CONVECTION IN THE ARC
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE MAIN COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG NRN WI
TO THE EAST. AS ANY STORMS GET TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...THEY ARE
TAKING A RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...FOLLOWING THE 850-300 MB
THICKNESSES. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CWFA FOR THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE SFC AND H850 WARM FRONTS MOVE
NORTH AND EAST...THE ARC OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. BEFORE
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE AS THEY WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET ORGANIZED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-60 KTS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE THE FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST YOU GO. WE HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NE
SECTION...AND THEN TAPERED DOWN TO CHC/SCT WORDING FOR GRR...AND
THEN NO POPS FOR THE VAN BUREN COUNTY AREA. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH H850 TEMPS 23-25C AND H7 TEMPS OVER
10C. EVEN WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...PCPN LOOKS UNLIKELY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWFA. USING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES AND H850 TEMPS...THE WARMEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA. TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE CLOUDS AND PCPN THIS MORNING...THE EAST SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SUN THIS MORNING/
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST ALSO OVER THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA. CONSIDERING TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID AND
EVEN UPPER 90S OVER THE SW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S...HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES FOR THREE HOURS WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE). PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA PLUS
CALHOUN COUNTY.

THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL SINK THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CLEAR THE CWFA OF ANY CHC OF PCPN. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE FRONT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHC OF CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN. THEN FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.  IT
NOW APPEARS THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE ON THE POLAR FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT WAVE ON THE FRONT COULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SUGGESTED THAT WAVE YESTERDAY AND
ACTUALLY SHOWS IT ON TONIGHTS RUN.  THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ALSO PICK
UP ON THE WAVE WITH THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS RESPECTIVELY. THIS COULD BE
A RATHER WET EVENT MORE THAN A SEVERE EVENT BUT ELEVATED STORMS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE IS THE ISSUE OF A 300 MB JET ENTRANCE
REGION LIFT TO AID THE WAVE. ALSO... WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO WORK WITH...FAIRLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WAVE.

ONCE THAT IS THROUGH... THE PROMISED COOLING WITH SUNSHINE VIA
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS (THANKS TO THAT DAVIS STRAIGHT BLOCK
I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR 5 DAYS NOW).  TOWARD FRIDAY A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE TRIES TO BRING A FRONT SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BUT IT
IS NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH PUSH TO THE FRONT TO WE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

LATE NEXT WEEKEND A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THAT LOOKED LIKE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO I ADDED THAT TO THE SATURDAY NIGHT
GRIDS. OVER ALL IT WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THAN
THE PAST 2 WEEKS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWFA AND
CALHOUN COUNTY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM ST JOSEPH TO MANISTEE.

&&

NJJ WDM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

LMZ843>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-251055-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-
657 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT AND THE RAINFALL
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL.  LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD LEAD
TO SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WITH MORE SERIOUS FLOODING
POSSIBLE WHERE ANY STORMS PERSIST.  THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
814 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EVART                   43.90N 85.27W
07/24/2005                   OSCEOLA            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            14 INCHES OF WATER ACROSS 7TH AVE AND US-10

0555 AM     TSTM WND DMG     IDLEWILD                43.89N 85.80W
07/24/2005                   LAKE               MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON GARAGE AND VAN

0601 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LILLEY                  43.77N 85.85W
07/24/2005                   NEWAYGO            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN 13 MILE AND WALNUT ROADS

0606 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RODNEY                  43.67N 85.32W
07/24/2005                   MECOSTA            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
            COMMUNITIES OF PARIS...RODNEY...MECOSTA AND REMUS

0707 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STANTON                 43.29N 85.08W
07/24/2005                   MONTCALM           MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN STANTON AND SHERIDAN

0717 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. LOUIS               43.41N 84.62W
07/24/2005                   GRATIOT            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN

&&

JK