Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
642 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2005

.UPDATE...ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO FIRST OF ALL REMOVE MENTION
OF WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ZONES WHICH EXPIRED AT 7 PM CDT. ALSO
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES AS WELL AS
THE BORDERING KANSAS ZONES SINCE DRIER AIR MOVED IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND CAP DID NOT BREAK AS EXPECTED. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES HAS MOVED NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OVER THE EAST MAY STILL SEE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS EVENING SO LEFT POPS IN THOSE AREAS. ALSO REDUCED
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT TUE MAY 17 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1025 AM MDT TUE MAY 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12 PM MDT
(1 PM CDT) THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A LIFTING MECHANISM...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES...AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL DOWN.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO IN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE...BUT WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS FIRES START QUICKLY...SPREAD FURIOUSLY...
AND BURN INTENSELY. ALL FIRES ARE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS. ALL OUTSIDE
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER.

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             9 E HILL CITY           39.37N 99.68W
05/17/2005  1.00 INCH        GRAHAM             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BOYD