Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
735 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ADVANCES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

GENERAL SCENARIO CALLING FOR UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY WORKING
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT OVER THE WESTERN 1/4 OF
THE AREA TO CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IN WATCH AREA SLOW
TO DEVELOP BUT AS INCREASING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND STRONG INSTABILITY STORMS WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE I HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR THE AREA AS
THE CURRENT COLORADO ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THINGS LESS CONFIDENT SO FOR NOW LEFT THEM AT CHANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1150 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 /1050 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO BECOME
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM
CDT). THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO HILL CITY LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE OF THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND A FAVORABLE
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH A LINE
FROM FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO HOXIE TO SHARON SPRINGS. AFTER
THOSE STORMS END...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AFTER A DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK LINE.

BULLER/LAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             9 N QUINTER             39.20N 100.23W
08/27/2005  1.00 INCH        SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
814 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             6 S MCCOOK              40.12N 100.62W
08/27/2005  1.75 INCH        RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

&&

PFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
849 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             6 W OBERLIN             39.82N 100.64W
08/27/2005  1.75 INCH        DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
921 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             19 SW GOODLAND          39.15N 101.96W
08/27/2005  1.75 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BULLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
939 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             8 W RULETON             39.34N 102.03W
08/27/2005  1.00 INCH        SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.80W
08/27/2005  70 MPH           SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BULLER