Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL AS
HOW WARM FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SAME TIME PERIOD.

LATEST SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. LATEST IR
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A MOISTURE PLUME
MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND WEST AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE MOISTURE PLUME WAS CLEARLY SEEN FROM NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. ALSO A VORT
MAX WAS WELL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW
MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL TODAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. WENT WITH THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS FOR SHORT TERM
DUE TO THEIR BEST HANDLING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
AS WELL AS MOISTURE FIELDS FOR CONVECTION.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR TONIGHT THE AREA SHOULD SEE A
SIMILAR REPEAT OF LAST EVENING AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EXIST FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CARRY 40 POPS WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH 30 POPS OR LESS FOR THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WORKED UPON BY DAYTIME HEATING. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO WILL
EXIST NEARBY. WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PARKED NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EASTWARD TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS SEEM TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE A BIT AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NORTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES THERE. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL
TRY TO BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. STILL NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE REGARDING MOISTURE TO MENTION
ANY CONVECTION BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1055 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
NORTHWEST OF A HILL CITY TO COLBY TO SHARON SPRINGS LINE IN KANSAS
AND NORTH OF A CHEYENNE WELLS TO KIT CARSON LINE IN COLORADO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) WITH
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS.  ONE POTENTIAL AREA FOR STORM INITIATION WILL
OCCUR NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM
HILL CITY TO SHARON SPRINGS KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  A
SECOND AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST IN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RESULT IN ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS
ANTICIPATED BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REPORTS.
GIVEN THE RICH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD...SOME STORMS
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  BY
MID-EVENING THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND PART OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 OR NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER INTO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FS/DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
459 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             10 SE BURLINGTON        39.20N 102.14W
06/25/2005  0.50 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL

0435 PM     HAIL             11 SE BURLINGTON        39.19N 102.13W
06/25/2005  0.25 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            NICKEL HAIL, 0.90 RAIN IN 20 MINUTES

&&

PFP