Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT WED APR 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY...PHASE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW A
STAGNANT AND BLOCK PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALSO
SOUTHERN STREAM GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOTS OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE GFS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER AT 18Z WITH THE SOUTHERN JET. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED
TO HAVE FEATURES OVER THE WEST NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST AND SOUTH. THE
GFS TENDED TO DO SLIGHLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF OUT WEST. OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF/UKMET DID BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS HAVE TROUBLES WITH LOW LEVELS. GFS STARTED
WAY TOO STRONG WITH RIDGING BEHIND INCOMING SURFACE FRONT. NAM/UKMET
DID NOT TOO BAD AND WERE THE BEST INITIALLY. AT 18Z...ALL THE
MODELS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH WITH RIDGING FROM MONTANA TO NEBRASKA
AND WYOMING. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM/UKMET. THE NAM/UKMET ARE DOING BEST ON
THE WIND FIELD. THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THEY DID SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. WILL TEND
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...MAINLY UKMET/ECMWF/GFS.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...AREA BETWEEN JETS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERN JET
GETTING CLOSE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AREA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN ANY FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG LIFT. IMAGINE AREA IS
UNDER WIDESPREAD WEAK LIFT BETWEEN THE JETS. DYNAMICS CAME THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE UP NORTH DOES NOT GET HER. AREA
GETS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING OVERNIGHT. WITH
MOISTURE PROFILES AND DYNAMICS SEEN...THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE HIGH
ON POPS. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY. DURING THE DAY...THE GFS
KEEPS AREA OUT OF ANY JET DYNAMICS WHILE NAM KEEPS AREA IN LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT. ALL LIFT IS GONE BY 12Z. WILL REMOVE POPS AND ADD DRIZZLE
AND FOG. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAXES.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LESS WITH THIS FEATURE PLUS
DYNAMICS A LITTLE WEAKER. WILL FAIRLY HIGH POPS. SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HAVING SNOW OR MIXTURE DURING THE NIGHT.
AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT. WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAXES.
THESE MAXES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WEAKER JET SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BEHIND ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL GET
DRYING AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER. BECAUSE IT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THIS NIGHT LOOKS TO GET
COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. WILL PROBABLY NEED
SOME KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL REISSUE
THE HWO...AND MENTION THE COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH RIDGING...DRYING...
AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN JETS...PULLED THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER FROM THE COLD NIGHT AND
LACK OF ANY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY SHOW THE SAME THING. SUNDAY WILL STAY DRY
BUT SHORTWAVE AND INCOMING FRONT WILL CHANGE THAT. INCREASED POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RESULT. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE DRY AS WE HAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS TO COME IN AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS...
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME WARMING UP. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...PLAN
ON GOING NEAR TO BELOW THE MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
333 PM MDT WED APR 27 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
333 PM MDT WED APR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW MAY MIX
WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED RISE VERY MUCH. THAT NIGHT...CLOUDS AND
WINS WILL DECREASE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT WED APR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     STRATTON                39.30N 102.60W
04/27/2005  58 MPH           KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

&&

PAINTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 PM MDT WED APR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             STRATTON                39.30N 102.60W
04/27/2005  0.75 INCH        KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PAINTER