Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  THE LOW CENTER AT THE SURFACE AND
850MB IS OVER WYOMING WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA TO
NEW MEXICO.  AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
SEEM TO BE UNDERDOING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MID
WEEK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK. HAVE GONE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES DURING THE
WORK WEEK AS A RESULT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER WAVE DUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF
WYOMING AND ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.  AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...THE FRONT PULLS NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THRUSDAY.  THIS TRANSIENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH EVENING AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEK BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN DURING THE WEEKEND
AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...TORNADO WATCH FROM 2 PM MONDAY UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ001...
      KSZ002...KSZ003...KSZ004...KSZ013...KSZ014...KSZ015...
      KSZ016...KSZ027...KSZ028...KSZ029.
.NE...TORNADO WATCH FROM 2 PM MONDAY UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR NEZ079...
      NEZ080...NEZ081.
.CO...TORNADO WATCH FROM 2 PM MONDAY UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY FOR COZ090.

&&

LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1025 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S...AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. A DIFFUSE DRY LINE WILL
SET UP NEAR THE KANSAS AND COLORADO STATE LINE AND MAY SERVE TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A STORM COULD POP UP ALMOST ANYWHERE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE TRI STATE AREA...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FROM ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

MWM/JDK

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