Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDE
AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND SMALL THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ITS IMPACT ON STREAMS AND CREEKS (MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA).

AT 20Z LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AND A BIT WEST FROM STRONG VORT MAX LIFTING INTO OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. FRONT RANGE CONVECTION REMAINS JUST NOW PUSHING ONTO
THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
TO OUR WEST MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DECREASE THEM A BIT AS THE
TEXAS WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY...REST OF THE WAVE
TO OUR WEST MOVES THROUGH WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. COLD
FRONT ALSO MOVES THROUGH WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS PRECIP LOOKS CONFINED TO AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AS WE GET A BIT OF HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY CANT ARGUE AGAINST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SOME POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MAIN ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA
AFTERWARD. FOR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD AS WELL AS A
WARMING TREND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS WE ARE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT REMAINS AN OPEN SYSTEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS/DGEX IN THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR THURSDAY. IN FACT...850
TEMPS FROM THE GFS/DGEX ARE IN THE 50S WHICH WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
60S FOR HIGHS...LOWER THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN A DISTURBANCE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EJECTING WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.
.NE...NONE.
.CO...NONE.

&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-041200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1053 AM MDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FIRST EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE LINE IN RESPONSE TO A
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING.

WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED THAN YESTERDAY.
DENSE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. NONETHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR A SLIGHT
RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FS/JDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N SHARON SPRINGS      39.00N 101.75W
06/03/2005                   WALLACE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED RUNNING ACROSS HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE
            MARKERS 148 AND 150.

&&

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
752 PM MDT FRI JUN 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW HERNDON            39.86N 100.85W
06/03/2005                   RAWLINS            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROADS UNDERWATER BETWEEN HERNDON AND LUDELL

&&

JOHNSON