Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
401 AM MST SUN NOV 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...BREWING WINTER STORM PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. ALL THE
SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING NAM/GFS/SREF TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH/WEST WITH UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. SREF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CONTINUITY AND WILL BE
PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION.

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 10-15 DAM WERE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 6-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE DROPS
OF AROUND 8MB OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH BROAD AREA OF
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT. FORECAST AREA ALREADY ON COLD SIDE OF FRONT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING. WIND WILL BE A HUGE PLAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 983MB IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAPIDLY STEEPEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST 0-1KM AND MOS WINDS INCREASE INTO
HIGH END ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND DO
NOT LET UP UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE WEST...WITH RAIN/SNOW FURTHER EAST CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES...AS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SETS UP NEAR
COLORADO STATE LINE AND MOVES VERY LITTLE. IN FACT MODELS SHOW IT
SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND WITH IT THE SNOW.

HIGHLIGHTS BASED PRIMARILY ON 24-36 HOURS OF STRONG WINDS AND AREAS
OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE SNOW WILL REACH WAS A
MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND...IT WONT
TAKE MUCH SNOW TO REACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA. THIS SEEMED MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FURTHER
WEST...WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW RESULTING IN 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY WOULD FALL TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
BE VERY WINDY AND SOME SNOW COULD FALL. THUS WINTER STORM WATCH
SEEMED TO LEAVE THE MOST OPTIONS OPEN FOR FOLLOW UPS BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.

EXTENDED...FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
ACTIVE. THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK RATHER COOL...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST...RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THANKS IN PART TO THE
DIGGING VORTEX OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER
CHILLY FOR THURSDAY AS 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
BELOW ZERO. BY FRIDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
KICKS IN ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER COOL DOWN.

ALL IN ALL...STAYED THE COURSE WITH ON GOING FORECAST AND ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-
     KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ027-
     KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-KSZ013-KSZ027-KSZ041-KSZ042.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-KSZ028-KSZ029.

NE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS
     MORNING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-
     NEZ080-NEZ081.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ080-NEZ081.

CO...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090-COZ091-COZ092.

&&

JDK/MBM

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