Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
228 PM MST SAT DEC 31 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A VERY MOIST FETCH OF WESTERLIES TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PW IN THE .5 TO .6 RANGE FROM GJT TO THE
WEST COAST. BELIEVE THE PCPN WILL INCREASE NOT LONG AFTER DARK THIS
EVENING. A WARM START SHOULD MEAN RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BELIEVE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL COME IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...TAPORING OFF THEREAFTER. HAVE
DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TO INCLUDE THE GRAND MESA AND ZONE 10...AS WESTERLY OROGRAPHICS BEING
THE STRONGER SNOW PRODUCING ELEMENT. THE 700 MB WEST WINDS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30 KTS WITH COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 700 AND 500
MB AND DECENT INSTABILITY...SO HAVE DECIDED TO PUT A LOT OF TRUST IN
THE OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SNOW AND BLOWING
ADVISORY FOR ZONES 12...18 AND 19 DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS.

DUE TO WARM CONDITIONS EARLY ON...BELIEVE LITTLE SNOW WILL FALL BELOW
7000 FEET UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND FINALLY ALL
SNOW BY SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY IS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER...SO HAVE BUMPED FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP AND
INCREASED SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AS WELL. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THOSE
TWO PERIODS CAME IN VERY WARM THIS MORNING...SO REMAIN JUST BELOW
THESE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES
BETWEEN GFS AND EC THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
THRU OUR REGION MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. THEN DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH MDLS SHOW
LOWER HEIGHTS AND LESS AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...
SPLY GFS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING OVER OUR CWA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH MODERATE SWRLY FLOW WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE AS WITH PAST
SYSTEMS IS PLENTIFUL. OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD WITH
H7 FLOW AROUND 30KTS SUPPORTED BY 120KT JET WHICH SHIFTS FROM NE UTAH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY. AS PREVIOUS FCSTR NOTED SFC LOW
DEPICTED MUCH STRONGER IN THE GFS...AS IS SFC FRONT. CURRENT TIMING
PUTS THE FRONT INTO W CENTRAL CO BETWEEN 15-18Z TUESDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION TERM RELATIVE AS EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUSPECT WINTER HILIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER MOST MTNS BEFORE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GRT BASIN WITH EMBEDDED WAVES DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE.
AMPLIFICATION AND EWRD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM THU AND FRI SHOULD BRING DRY MILD CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS WEST COAST TROF
MOVES INLAND. FEEL THE CHANCE OF FOG IN THE UINTA VALLEY WILL BE LOW
UNLESS SNOW COVER EXISTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS
       OF WESTERN COLORADO MTS...ZONES 4...9...10...13.
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY
       FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS...ZONES 12...18...
       19.
.UT...NONE.

&&

CJC/MC

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