Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 AM MST TUE NOV 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...VERY COLD AND STABLE
AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES EXIST FROM CRAIG TO MEEKER AND IN THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE BRIEF AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE WEST...AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOISTURE
WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIN STRATUS ALONG WITH
PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS BEGINNING TO INVADE EASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AS H7-5 WARM-AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA...AIR MASS WILL SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...120+KT UPR
JET WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS.
UPWARD FORCING GENERATED BY LEFT-FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET ALONG
WITH OROGRAPHICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF WESTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL SPILL ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
POTENTIALLY...THIS FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH STRONG UPR JET ALOFT
TO CREATE A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THIS...EXPECT A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. AS A RESULT... HAVE UPGRADED THE EXISTING
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING...AND EXPANDED THE WARNING TO THE
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH RANGE AROUND CRESTED BUTTE AND GOTHIC. ALSO...
WILL ISSUE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE CRAIG/MEEKER AREA...
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...I-70 CORRIDOR FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS TO AVON...
THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THE
HIGHLIGHTS WILL ALL BE VALID FROM 6PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6PM
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN UINTA MTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY...BUT FEEL LACK OF MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH WILL RESULT IN ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WINDS WILL BE 25-40KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW...FURTHER CREATING DANGEROUS OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN AS THE UPR
JET ENERGY SLIDES NORTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP WILL END
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES.
NADLER.83

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE WORK THROUGH THE REGION. SNOWFALL WILL
LIKELY BE MEASURED IN FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.

FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER SHRTWV WORKS THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET DRIVEN INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS EWD BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH FAST W-SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WAA
PATTERN WL BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHC TO LKLY POPS IN THE CURRENT FCST.

SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE
PASSING THROUGH. THIS WL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STRONGER PUSH OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WL DRIVE A STRONG SFC FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. CONDITIONS DRY OUT AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN NEXT TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE. COLTON

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MST
       WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 4/10/12/13.
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
       MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 2/5/8/9/14/18/19.

.UT...NONE.

&&

DJN/JDC

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