Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
425 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
POTENT SHORT WAVE SWINGING THROUGH NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THIS
MORNING.  MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
OCCUR BY 9 AM.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BACK EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE WASATCH RANGE.  THEN DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD...SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT WITH FORCING MECHANISM OTHER THAN SURFACE
HEATING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE DISORGANIZED PULSE STORMS AND WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...UNLIKE THE LONGER LIVED STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE GRADIENT WIND THAT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
COMMON.  TYPICALLY IN JUNE THIS WOULD WARRANT SERIOUS CONSIDERATION
WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER.  BUT THIS HASN/T BEEN A TYPICAL JUNE
AND MORNING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT.
THE WIND WILL DRY THINGS OUT THIS AFTERNOON BUT VALUES PROBABLY
WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.  BUT THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED AS DRIER AIR DOES ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND EXPECT ALL STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT.  UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
WITH UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NRN CALIFORNIA SWEEPS OVER NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS NOT GENERATING ANY PCPN WITH THIS
FEATURE...MAINLY BECAUSE THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE WITH MOISTURE
LACKING AND IT PASSES OVERHEAD AT THE WRONG TIME OF THE DAY.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL THE LOWEST IT HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOR A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RUN TO RUN MDL CONSISTENCY NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE NOR IS MODEL COMPARISON. SO MADE NO BIG CHANGES IN
TEMP OR POP GRIDS. TUESDAY THE NAM SHOWS A DRYING TREND WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS THINGS A LITTLE WETTER...FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD
NAM AS IT BUILDS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW OFF
CNTRL CA. BUT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND SOME ENERGY AND MSTR
WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE SO FAR OUT INTO
THE FUTURE. ACCORDING TO THE GFS HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MELT OUT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK. THE UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEAST UTAH HAVE THE HIGHEST REMAINING AMOUNTS LEFT TO MELT...AND
WILL KEEP THE DUCHESNE RIVER IN UINTAH COUNTY IN FLOOD CONDITION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE DUCHESNE
      RIVER NEAR RANDLETT.

&&

PF/MC/JRP

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