Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE   ...COR LONG TERM DAYS...
210 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR WELL ADVERTISED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENING. CONVECTION TO OUR EAST SENDING
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST...SURFACE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA...
AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER SUPPORT
TO THE WEST ALREADY KICKING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ANTICIPATE RAPIDLY INCREASING COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...AND THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS
COULD BE TORNADIC. THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF
NEBRASKA COUNTIES...AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SYSTEM
ROLLS EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SPOTS...MOST OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN
DRY IN RECENT WEEKS AND COULD TAKE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAIN.
WILL LET SHORT FUSE SITUATION DICTATE HYDROLOGIC ASPECTS
AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO BE WORKING
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE MORNING...AND INCREASED
POPS JUST A BIT. QUESTION IS WEATHER ANY CLEARING RESULTS...AND
WHILE SOME MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SUBSIDENT WAKE...LIKELY TO REFILL
WITH STRATOCU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SOUTHEAST CWFA
AS FRONT SHOULD GET SHOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. EXPECT MAIN
CONVECTION ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWFA. LEFT SMALL POPS NEAR FRONT JUST IN CASE.

.LONG TERM...00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HANGS UP JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THIS WERE TO HANG UP FURTHER
NORTH...THEN THERE WOULD BE A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
GFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE NAM.

AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY THEN STRENGTHENS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY UNTIL THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

MORITZ/WESELY/JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-121200-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE OF STRONG...LONGER TRACK
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN GENERAL...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE READY FOR RAPID
DEPLOYMENT AT ANY TIME.

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-NUCKOLLS-PHELPS-
POLK-SHERMAN-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A YORK...TO HASTINGS TO ALMA LINE. TO THE NORTH...THE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT IS MOST PROMINENT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD READY FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT AT ANY TIME
THE REST OF TODAY.

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ/WESELY/BERG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
606 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 W LEXINGTON           40.78N 99.76W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEWIS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
609 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             1 NW LEXINGTON          40.79N 99.76W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TORNADO          JOHNSON LAKE            40.68N 99.85W
05/11/2005                   GOSPER             NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO NEAR LAKESIDE TRAILER PARK

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LEWIS