Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
154 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING...AND CONVECTION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
FROM A LOW CENTER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SURFACE BASED CAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING UP TO
1500 J/KG BY 17Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...WITH UP TO 80 KT
MAXIMA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW
CAN BE SEEN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE NORTH.

EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO APPROACH 2500 J/KG BY EARLY EVENING...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KTS. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA.  MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINER OF CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
08/18Z. CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING 3500 J/KG
BY 08/21Z...BUT THE AVAILABLE SHEAR IS VERY WEAK.  MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES.  MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  TUESDAY BEGINS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND AHEAD OF
NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY...AND SOUTHERN ZONES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENT UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES.  MOISTURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS PLACEMENT
HOLDS...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS WELL
TUESDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE EJECTED FROM
MEAN TROUGH TO THE WEST AND LIFT ONTO THE PLAINS.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OUR REGION...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA.  UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.  IF SYSTEM SLOWS FURTHER...CHCS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY. &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-081200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHAST AT 35
MPH.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THIS AREA...A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

NELSON/FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
713 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             MILLER                  40.93N 99.39W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
746 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             ST. PAUL                41.21N 98.46W
05/07/2005  0.88 INCH        HOWARD             NE   PUBLIC

0735 PM     TORNADO          4 E BELGRADE            41.47N 97.99W
05/07/2005                   NANCE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TORNADO LASTED FOR ABOUT ONE MINUTE.

&&

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             7 NW OXFORD             40.32N 99.73W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0413 PM     HAIL             7 NW OXFORD             40.32N 99.73W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0418 PM     HAIL             1 E OXFORD              40.25N 99.61W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        HARLAN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  40.25N 99.63W
05/07/2005  1.25 INCH        FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

0440 PM     HAIL             5 SW HOLDREGE           40.39N 99.44W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        PHELPS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0445 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 40.37N 99.47W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM     TORNADO          1 E HOLDREGE            40.44N 99.36W
05/07/2005                   PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0518 PM     TORNADO          3 NW AXTELL             40.51N 99.17W
05/07/2005                   KEARNEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO SPOTTED NEAR PHELPS/KEARNEY COUNTY LINE.

0518 PM     HAIL             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0531 PM     HAIL             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0539 PM     TORNADO          2 S KEARNEY             40.67N 99.08W
05/07/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0539 PM     HAIL             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
05/07/2005  2.00 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0545 PM     HAIL             1 NE KEARNEY            40.71N 99.07W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0600 PM     TORNADO          3 E KEARNEY             40.70N 99.03W
05/07/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0602 PM     TORNADO          3 E KEARNEY             40.70N 99.03W
05/07/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

0605 PM     TORNADO          9 N GIBBON              40.88N 98.84W
05/07/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THIS IS A CORRECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS REPORT.

0615 PM     TORNADO          5 N WOOD RIVER          40.89N 98.60W
05/07/2005                   HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0615 PM     TORNADO          9 N SHELTON             40.91N 98.73W
05/07/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0630 PM     HAIL             BOELUS                  41.08N 98.72W
05/07/2005  0.88 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0630 PM     HAIL             2 E BOELUS              41.08N 98.68W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0630 PM     TORNADO          6 N WOOD RIVER          40.91N 98.60W
05/07/2005                   HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEBRIS BEING REPORTED.

0635 PM     HAIL             3 S CAIRO               40.96N 98.61W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0643 PM     HAIL             2 NE CAIRO              41.02N 98.58W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0648 PM     HAIL             3 SE DANNEBROG          41.09N 98.50W
05/07/2005  1.50 INCH        HOWARD             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     HAIL             N DANNEBROG             41.12N 98.55W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0657 PM     HAIL             ST. PAUL                41.21N 98.46W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0710 PM     HAIL             MILLER                  40.93N 99.39W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     HAIL             2 W PALMER              41.23N 98.26W
05/07/2005  2.00 INCH        MERRICK            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0715 PM     HAIL             5 NE BOELUS             41.13N 98.65W
05/07/2005  0.88 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0724 PM     HAIL             4 NE CUSHING            41.34N 98.31W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0727 PM     HAIL             FARWELL                 41.22N 98.63W
05/07/2005  0.88 INCH        HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS FALLING AT HIGHWAY 92 AND PAGE ROAD.

0735 PM     TORNADO          4 E BELGRADE            41.47N 97.99W
05/07/2005                   NANCE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TORNADO LASTED FOR ABOUT ONE MINUTE.

0740 PM     HAIL             ST. PAUL                41.21N 98.46W
05/07/2005  0.88 INCH        HOWARD             NE   PUBLIC

&&

MH