Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
154 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING...AND CONVECTION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE DRYLINE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
FROM A LOW CENTER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SURFACE BASED CAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING UP TO
1500 J/KG BY 17Z. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A JET STREAK MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...WITH UP TO 80 KT
MAXIMA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW
CAN BE SEEN THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE NORTH.

EXPECT CAPE VALUES TO APPROACH 2500 J/KG BY EARLY EVENING...WITH 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 50 KTS. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA.  MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE THE MAIN DETERMINER OF CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
08/18Z. CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING 3500 J/KG
BY 08/21Z...BUT THE AVAILABLE SHEAR IS VERY WEAK.  MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE MAY BE A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES.  MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  TUESDAY BEGINS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND AHEAD OF
NEXT DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY...AND SOUTHERN ZONES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S.

PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENT UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES.  MOISTURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS PLACEMENT
HOLDS...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS WELL
TUESDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE EJECTED FROM
MEAN TROUGH TO THE WEST AND LIFT ONTO THE PLAINS.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OUR REGION...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA.  UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO FILL AND LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.  IF SYSTEM SLOWS FURTHER...CHCS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY. &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-081200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHAST AT 35
MPH.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THIS AREA...A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FOR ANY
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

NELSON/FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             1 E OXFORD              40.25N 99.61W
05/07/2005  0.75 INCH        HARLAN             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0420 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  40.25N 99.63W
05/07/2005  1.25 INCH        FURNAS             NE   PUBLIC

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             5 SW HOLDREGE           40.39N 99.44W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        PHELPS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 40.37N 99.47W
05/07/2005  1.00 INCH        PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TORNADO          1 E HOLDREGE            40.44N 99.36W
05/07/2005                   PHELPS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HEINLEIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
05/07/2005  1.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HEINLEIN