Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BIG QUESTION FOR THIS
PERIOD IS CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT.  GOOD PUSH BEHIND COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH DECENT PRESSURE RISES AND DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S.  THE FRONT HAS MADE IT TO A KLXN-KODX
LINE BY 18Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.  GOOD
MOISTURE FLOW AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CAP
HAS GOOD HOLD FOR NOW WITH H7 TEMPS 14+C.  GETTING A FEW RETURNS ON
AREA RADARS FROM THE MID CLOUD BAND ACROSS THE AREA.  CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STORM GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ON
MONDAY MORNING.  ALL AREAS DRY BY 15Z.  COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND UNDER PTCLDY SKIES...TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 80S.

QUESTION IS TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RETURN WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  FEEL FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
WILL LIMIT RETURN FLOW TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  WILL DROP MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR THEN.  GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW
LEVEL JET GETS TO GOING TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE COMING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ALONG WITH THE WWA COULD
BRING A CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT STORMS. SINCE MODELS INDICATED THIS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF IT...WILL NOT MENTION POPS
AT THIS TIME AND SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT WITH MOVEMENT OF TODAYS
FRONT.  OTHERWISE...STILL A MILD DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WARM UP AHEAD.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.  THIS SHOULD MAKE MOST OF
THE PERIOD HOT AND DRY...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS AND NAM BOTH TRY TO
BRING A FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS YET.  EVEN IF IT DOES
MANAGE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A
STRONG CAP WITH H7 TEMPS OF 15-17C.  THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
ECMWF...DGEX AND HPC DEPICTIONS KEEP THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL AGAIN KEEP IT DRY AND
FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

KISNER/KING

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