Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE IF THUNDERSTORMS POPS OVER
OUR CWA OR STAY WEST THIS MORNING...THEN NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE CONUS INTERESTING AS THREE OF THE
FOUR CORNERS WITH INTERESTING FEATURES...THE LOW SPINNING INTO THE
NORTHEAST...THE APPROACHING WAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THE
HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN PLAYER FOR US WILL BE THE WAVE
TO THE NW AS 50 TO 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON THE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AT 00Z. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE FROM SETTING UP LONG TERM
OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL HELP DRIVE FRONT THROUGH HERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW LEVEL JET RUNNING 30-40 KTS FIRST FEW LEVELS
OF KUEX VAD WIND PROFILE. ABOVE THAT WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AT 15-
20 KTS AND THEN NORTH AT ONLY 15 KTS BY 14000 FEET.  BOTH RWD AND
MRR PROFILERS DOWN AT PRESENT WHICH IS TOO BAD AS NAM DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL JET TO SET UP JUST TO OUR WEST BY 06Z WITH NOSE OF JET INTO
THE SW CWA THROUGH 12Z AND WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE TO CONFIRM IT WITH
REAL TIME DATA.  06Z NAM ALSO PLACES 850 THETA E RIDGE OVER WEST TO
CENTRAL CWA BETWEEN 09-12Z. WE HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF CELLS POP UP NEAR
MCCOOK PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT GIVEN THE LIGHT
STEERING WINDS AND THEY HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY WEAK. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS
ACTIVITY WHICH DID NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 330 AM CST AND THEN STORMS
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THESE. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

WILL CUT OFF DISCUSSION HERE AND GET REST OF FORECAST PROCESSED AS
FIRST CELL HAS POPPED IN OUR CWA IN FURNAS COUNTY.

ONCE WE GET PAST THIS MORNING THINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY HOT AND DRY FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM NOTED ABOVE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

EWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-CLAY NE-DAWSON NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-
FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-
HOWARD NE-JEWELL KS-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-MITCHELL KS-NANCE NE-
NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-POLK NE-ROOKS KS-
SHERMAN NE-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...PHILLIPSBURG AND YORK
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS
EXPECTED TO BE PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING WITH PEA
SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

KING