Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...CHANGING WEATHER OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WORKS EAST. AS OF 2 PM...THE TROUGH
WAS RUNNING ALONG HIGHWAY 281 BUT TAILED BACK SOUTHWEST IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHEAST AREAS OF CWFA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE WEST CWFA. WEST WINDS BEHIND TROUGH...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF IT.

VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS WEAKISH BUT CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS. SWODAY1 HAS
THIS PRETTY WELL OUTLINED...THE IDEA THAT FAR EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES STAND ANY REAL SHOT AT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT STORM OR
TWO. HAVE CONFINED STORM CHANCES THERE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY
EVENING CHANCE IN EASTERN AREAS...AND SOME CHANCE ALL NIGHT
LONG SOUTH. SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL/SLOW AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET COULD ACT AS A FOCUS SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN THOSE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING. MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF H250 JET WILL
AID IN LIFT AS WELL. KEPT SCATTERED RISK DOWN SOUTH.

LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS LATE THIS
EVENING WESTERN AREAS.

FEW OTHER EDITS TO THE FORECAST DUE TO EXTREME INCONSISTENCY
AND PROBLEMS WITH GFE ON A NATIONAL SCALE. IN SOME CASES
IT TOOK 10 TO 15 MINUTES JUST TO EDIT ONE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE TEMPERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH THEN BACK NORTH THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. DO NOT EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BE A WASH OUT...BUT EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW. A FEW WEAK UPPER
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
BOUNDARIES AROUND SO ANTICIPATE THAT IT COULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLS OFF A LITTLE FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

MORITZ/BERG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
612 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIMPSON                 39.39N 97.93W
06/29/2005                   MITCHELL           KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED LARGE TREES UPROOTED IN SIMPSON. CAR
            MOVED 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

&&

MONTEFUSCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
613 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S BELOIT              39.36N 98.11W
06/29/2005                   MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY REPORTED 14 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWNED 7
            MILES SOUTH AND 3.5 MILES EAST OF BELOIT ON HIGHWAY 14.

&&

MONTEFUSCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIMPSON                 39.39N 97.93W
06/29/2005                   MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MITCHELL COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTIES REPORTED SIGNIFICANT
            WIND DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF SIMPSON. DAMAGE REPORTED ALL
            OVER THE TOWN OF SIMPSON. METAL BUILDINGS REPORTED DOWN.
            LAW ENFORCEMENT WILL ASSESS SITUATION AND REPORT BACK
            SOON.

&&

MONTEFUSCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIMPSON                 39.39N 97.93W
06/29/2005                   MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN OF SIMPSON.

&&

MONTEFUSCO