Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...CHANGING WEATHER OVER THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WORKS EAST. AS OF 2 PM...THE TROUGH
WAS RUNNING ALONG HIGHWAY 281 BUT TAILED BACK SOUTHWEST IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHEAST AREAS OF CWFA...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE WEST CWFA. WEST WINDS BEHIND TROUGH...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF IT.

VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS WEAKISH BUT CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS. SWODAY1 HAS
THIS PRETTY WELL OUTLINED...THE IDEA THAT FAR EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES STAND ANY REAL SHOT AT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT STORM OR
TWO. HAVE CONFINED STORM CHANCES THERE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY
EVENING CHANCE IN EASTERN AREAS...AND SOME CHANCE ALL NIGHT
LONG SOUTH. SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL/SLOW AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET COULD ACT AS A FOCUS SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE IN THOSE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING. MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF H250 JET WILL
AID IN LIFT AS WELL. KEPT SCATTERED RISK DOWN SOUTH.

LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS LATE THIS
EVENING WESTERN AREAS.

FEW OTHER EDITS TO THE FORECAST DUE TO EXTREME INCONSISTENCY
AND PROBLEMS WITH GFE ON A NATIONAL SCALE. IN SOME CASES
IT TOOK 10 TO 15 MINUTES JUST TO EDIT ONE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE TEMPERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN CONCERN IS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH THEN BACK NORTH THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. DO NOT EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BE A WASH OUT...BUT EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW. A FEW WEAK UPPER
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
BOUNDARIES AROUND SO ANTICIPATE THAT IT COULD REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLS OFF A LITTLE FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

MORITZ/BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSZ005-NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>075-082>084-301200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-FRANKLIN NE-FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-
GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HAMILTON NE-HARLAN NE-HOWARD NE-KEARNEY NE-
MERRICK NE-NANCE NE-PHELPS NE-PHILLIPS KS-SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON AND PHILLIPSBURG
1159 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL LIMIT THE SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE ARE NIGHTLY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL DURING THOSE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

KSZ006-007-017>019-NEZ049-064-076-077-085>087-301200-
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-NUCKOLLS NE-OSBORNE KS-
POLK NE-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-THAYER NE-WEBSTER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YORK
1159 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE MOISTURE
AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A
FULLERTON NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 60 MPH.

THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 9 PM...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE ARE NIGHTLY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL DURING THOSE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWER CASE)

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ