Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG A CONVERGENT LINE
ACROSS THE CWA.  CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HELPING TO KEEP THESE STORMS
FROM GETTING TOO MUCH OUT OF CONTROL FOR THE TIME BEING.  LOOKS LIKE
THE BIGGER SHOW WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING.  AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH TOMORROW...POPS SHOULD INCREASE TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.  THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING.

TWEAKED THE TEMPS DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOUDINESS. REST OF
THE FORECAST MUCH THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.  FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GFS TRENDS TOWARD A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS.  OTHER EXTENDED
MODELS...ECMWF...UKMO...GEM...SUGGEST A MORE INTACT UPPER LOW
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH STILL A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.  GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AMONG THE MODELS RETURNING MOISTURE AND THE WARM
FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO QUICKLY.  THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AROUND MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE
KS...NONE

&&

HEINLEIN/FAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>075-082>085-251200-
ADAMS NE-BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-FRANKLIN NE-FURNAS NE-GOSPER NE-
GREELEY NE-HALL NE-HARLAN NE-HOWARD NE-KEARNEY NE-MERRICK NE-
NANCE NE-PHELPS NE-SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-WEBSTER NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY AND LEXINGTON
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND ALSO INCLUDING
NANCE AND MERRICK COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KSZ007-019-NEZ049-063-064-076-077-086-087-251200-
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-HAMILTON NE-JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-NUCKOLLS NE-
POLK NE-THAYER NE-YORK NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YORK
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND FOR JEWELL AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

KSZ005-006-017-018-251200-
OSBORNE KS-PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LAWRENCE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>075-082>085-250400-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-HALL-HARLAN-
HOWARD-KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-PHELPS-SHERMAN-VALLEY-WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLAND...HASTINGS...HOLDREGE...
KEARNEY...LEXINGTON...MINDEN...ORD
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 324 ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 11 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 324 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 11 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

ADAMS    BUFFALO    DAWSON    FRANKLIN
FURNAS   GOSPER     GREELEY   HALL
HARLAN   HOWARD     KEARNEY   MERRICK
NANCE    PHELPS     SHERMAN   VALLEY
WEBSTER

LAWRENCE

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