Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE   ...COR LONG TERM DAYS...
210 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.SHORT TERM...PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR WELL ADVERTISED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENING. CONVECTION TO OUR EAST SENDING
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST...SURFACE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA...
AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER SUPPORT
TO THE WEST ALREADY KICKING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ANTICIPATE RAPIDLY INCREASING COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...AND THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS
COULD BE TORNADIC. THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF
NEBRASKA COUNTIES...AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE SYSTEM
ROLLS EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SPOTS...MOST OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN
DRY IN RECENT WEEKS AND COULD TAKE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAIN.
WILL LET SHORT FUSE SITUATION DICTATE HYDROLOGIC ASPECTS
AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO BE WORKING
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE MORNING...AND INCREASED
POPS JUST A BIT. QUESTION IS WEATHER ANY CLEARING RESULTS...AND
WHILE SOME MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN SUBSIDENT WAKE...LIKELY TO REFILL
WITH STRATOCU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SOUTHEAST CWFA
AS FRONT SHOULD GET SHOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. EXPECT MAIN
CONVECTION ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING TO BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWFA. LEFT SMALL POPS NEAR FRONT JUST IN CASE.

.LONG TERM...00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HANGS UP JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THIS WERE TO HANG UP FURTHER
NORTH...THEN THERE WOULD BE A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
GFS IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE NAM.

AN UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY THEN STRENGTHENS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY UNTIL THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

MORITZ/WESELY/JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ005>007-017>019-121200-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE OF STRONG...LONGER TRACK
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN GENERAL...THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE READY FOR RAPID
DEPLOYMENT AT ANY TIME.

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-NUCKOLLS-PHELPS-
POLK-SHERMAN-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A YORK...TO HASTINGS TO ALMA LINE. TO THE NORTH...THE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT IS MOST PROMINENT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD READY FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT AT ANY TIME
THE REST OF TODAY.

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ/WESELY/BERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
741 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             6 NW AMHERST            40.90N 99.35W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            COVERING THE GROUND. 3RD HAILSTORM IN 20 MINUTES. MOST
            HAIL BETWEEN DIME AND GOLFBALL SIZE

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
752 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOOD RIVER              40.82N 98.60W
05/11/2005                   HALL               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF WATER TO THE DEPTH OF GRILLS ON AN AUTOMOBILE.
            ROADS IMPASSABLE.

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
807 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ODESSA                  40.70N 99.26W
05/11/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD NORTH OF I-80 AT ODESSA

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
808 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             PROSSER                 40.69N 98.58W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
809 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
05/11/2005                   DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN LEXINGTON

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W LEXINGTON           40.78N 99.86W
05/11/2005                   DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF OFF A TRAILER AT JOHNSON LAKE.

0709 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
05/11/2005                   DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY STREETS IN LEXINGTON ARE IMPASSABLE.

0712 PM     HAIL             7 N BERTRAND            40.63N 99.63W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        PHELPS             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0715 PM     HAIL             ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.38W
05/11/2005  1.50 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LITTLE BIT OF HAIL AND SOME FLOODING IN THE STREETS.
            EXCESSIVE WINDS AND RAIN.

0719 PM     HAIL             ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.38W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN ELM CREEK...PUBLIC
            REPORT

0724 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEXINGTON               40.78N 99.74W
05/11/2005  2.19 INCH        DAWSON             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

0727 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE ELM CREEK          40.73N 99.36W
05/11/2005  60 MPH           BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

             PUBLIC REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GOLF
            BALL SIZED HAIL AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES.

0735 PM     HAIL             6 NW AMHERST            40.90N 99.35W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        BUFFALO            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            COVERING THE GROUND. 3RD HAILSTORM IN 20 MINUTES. MOST
            HAIL BETWEEN DIME AND GOLFBALL SIZE

0751 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOOD RIVER              40.82N 98.60W
05/11/2005                   HALL               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF WATER TO THE DEPTH OF GRILLS ON AN AUTOMOBILE.
            ROADS IMPASSABLE.

0757 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ODESSA                  40.70N 99.26W
05/11/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD NORTH OF I-80 AT ODESSA

0808 PM     HAIL             PROSSER                 40.69N 98.58W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        ADAMS              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
819 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLOOD            MILLER                  40.93N 99.39W
05/11/2005                   BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 40 2 MILE EAST OF MILLER...WASHED OUT. SOME
            VEHICLES INVOLVED IN THE FLOODING.

0810 PM     FLOOD            ALDA                    40.86N 98.47W
05/11/2005                   HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STANDING WATER IN MANY FIELDS ALONG HIGHWAY 30 BETWEEN
            ALDA AND WOOD RIVER. NO WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
            HAIL.

&&

LEWIS