Tornado Warning 7, NWS Glasgow, MT

000 
WWUS55 KGGW 210245
SVSGGW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
844 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

MTC071-210315-
/O.CON.KGGW.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-050621T0315Z/
PHILLIPS-
844 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

AT 839 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
WAGNER...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MALTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF...
CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF 
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4900 10826 4828 10839 4821 10751 4899 10743

$$

GFF

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
205 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY...
WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. FIRST ROUND EXPECTED TO
COME TONIGHT WITH PATTERN NOT TO DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHT. LATEST
NAM...WHICH PICKED UP WELL ON LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY...IS DEVELOPING
YET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND SENDING IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WITH A LITTLE EARLIER TIMING THAN PREVIOUS RUN. KGGW 18Z
SOUNDING SHOWING DECENT CAP...BUT WITH WARMING AND INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THIS SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

FOR TUESDAY INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WITH
IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES. SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT THERE MAY BE
SOMETHING OF A CAP...BUT IF ANY WAVES CROSS ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL KEEP
POPS HERE. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION. SHOULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION
INITIATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO
WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING. NOT REALLY CONFIDENT HOW LONG ACTIVITY
WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT...SO HAVE PUSHED POPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IN
CASE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND WAVE ENERGY SUPPORTS THEM PAST
SUNSET. ON WEDNESDAY FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND EXPECT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND PUSH INTO
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER NOT LOOKING QUITE
AS FAVORABLE...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT WITH SIMILAR PATTERN. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST.

OTHERWISE EXPECT HOT AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S...WITH
LOWS AT NIGHT ONLY IN THE 60S. JJZ

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES AGAIN WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ESPECIALLY BEYOND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PROGGED BY THE
ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH A POOLING OF HIGHER MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LIMITING FACTOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE
LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL
HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO CANADA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS.

ONE THING FOR SURE TO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD IS A COOLER AIRMASS
TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMALS.  JAMBA

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SINCE GOOD THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALREADY HANDLED JUST FINE IN THE GRIDS.
EVERYTHING ALSO ON TRACK WITH MORE SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY IN AT LEAST
A PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. JAZ

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILING OF ABOUT 8
THOUSAND WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LARGE HAIL A GOOD POSSIBILITY
WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WOULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  JAMBA

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
426 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

MTZ016-017-021-022-059>061-211200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-
426 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFWCNGGW OR WWUS65 KGGW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ018>020-023>027-062-211200-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
WIBAUX-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
426 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJZ