Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MINOR UPDATES TONIGHT WITH FORECAST ALREADY ON TRACK. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT STILL
SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.
EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKED GOOD SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. JAZ

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE BC COAST AND WILL SWING THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. COOLER...MORE WESTERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY
AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE DRIVING NORTH FROM NEVADA ALREADY SPAWNING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT WITH DEW POINTS FALLING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL HAVE DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WITH APPROACH OF WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST...HAVE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. UPPER FLOW TURNS WEST TO
SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR A BREAK FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS KEEP US UNDER A SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS. AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES NOTED...BUT THE GENERAL IMPRESSION OF
THE PATTERN IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEEDED MOST VERY DAY. LATEST 12Z GFS DRIVES THE PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AGGRESSIVELY INLAND. THIS IS IN
OPPOSITION TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS SO WILL NOT GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION. 500 THICKNESSES CLIMB WELL PAST 570 DM THIS
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD THERMAL LOW FORMING OVER MT. 500 MB
HEIGHTS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THIS OFTEN MEANS WARMER HIGHS THAN FORECAST AND HAVE
RAISED WEEKEND HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
PLANNED. SIMONSEN

&&

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY OF THE TAF
SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ACTIVITY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP SITE TO IFR WITH STRONG
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO VFR. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS. JAZ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
404 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

MTZ016>027-059>062-231200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
404 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING
FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N COHAGEN             47.16N 106.59W
06/22/2005  40 MPH           GARFIELD           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH DOWN

&&

RUTHE

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