Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THRU MONDAY...
LOTS OF FACTORS IN PLACE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER NIGHT...WITH
SEVERE STORMS ALREADY IN OUR WEST.  AIRMASS TO BECOME MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE. ETA FORECAST LIFTED INDEXES TO -11 AND CAPES TO 4500 IN
OUR SE. EXCELLENT 0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KT MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
LOW MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND INTENSIFYING AS IT DRAWS INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO IT. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING N-S
ORIENTED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL. MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY
A LITTLE OVERDONE BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...ETA HAS HANDLED THESE
WELL LAST MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST INFLUENCE FROM THIS TO BE IN
OUR NORTH AND WEST.

NE MT WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT IN A COOLER DRIER AND NOT QUITE SO
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES THOUGH...WILL SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CERTAINLY LESS INTENSE THAN PAST 2 NIGHTS...AND WILL
DOWNPLAY INTENSITY. SIMONSEN

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS NOTHING NEW SEEMS TO
BE OFFERED UP BY LATEST AVAILABLE MODELS. ALTHO TECHNICALLY OUT OF
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL ADD IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NEXT
SATURDAY AS IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT A FRONTAL A PASSAGE. TIMING
CAN BE REFINED IF NEED BE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THINGS COME INTO
BETTER FOCUS FOR THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SWINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TO BE FOLLOWED BY FLAT FLOW OR A LITTLE WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO LEAD THE PACK WITH THE FASTEST TIMING.  LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

MON NIGHT & TUESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GIVEN THE PATTERN/RECENT
HISTORY & FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE TURN SEVERE ONCE AGAIN.  BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES CENTER
AROUND THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  THE GFS CARRIES THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF OFFER UP SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE TROUGH
AXIS FURTHER WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INHERITED GRIDS HAVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WHICH LOOKS
GOOD.  AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY NEED
TO ASSES THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION NOW
AS IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.  PLAN TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT
TUESDAY AS WE ARE ABOVE THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  STILL
GENERALLY STAYED ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN EVEN
THOU THE GFS AND SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE FASTER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND HAVE A COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA.  PUTTING SOME
WEIGHT ON THE FACT THAT ALL OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING.  WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IT/S AFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES.

TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  THE LATEST GFS PUSHES THE UPPER
TROUGH QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY...AND
BRINGS A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS INTO EASTERN MONTANA.  AS THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT PLAN TO TRIM BACK THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO OUR EASTERN ZONES ONLY.  IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS SHOWING IT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO REMOVE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

WED NIGHT & THURSDAY...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME WITH FLAT
FLOW OR SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A
CONVECTION-FREE PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE GFSLR SWINGS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BY WELL
TO OUR NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE MID-WEEK
TROUGH...AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE ECMWF MAINTAIN MORE OR LESS FLAT
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DOES NOT DEPICT SUCH A TROUGH BY THE END OF
IT/S RUN AT 12Z FRIDAY.  FOR NOW PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND. CB

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. EAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFT TO NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT
PECK LAKE UNTIL 4 PM TODAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTY 6 PM SATURDSAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             10 E MALTA              48.36N 107.66W
06/25/2005  3.00 INCH        PHILLIPS           MT   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT CAR DAMAGE...BACK WINDOW SMASHED OUT

&&

MDP

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