Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

...OUR FIRST TASTE OF FOOTBALL WEATHER ARRIVES THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE/VE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IN THIS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
LARGE CAPES AND WEAKENING CIN EXIST.

WE/VE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL SECTIONS OF NTX OVERNIGHT. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 1026+ MB HIGH SINKING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...MUCH COOLER. HURRAH

FRIDAY AND AFTERWARDS...A SEMI-FALL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER NTX
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY THE RED RIVER
THIS WEEKEND...AND A DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST. WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO ONLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY...AND DOWN
SOUTH MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE NORTHERLY
PATH WILL SPREAD RAIN FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND COULD EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  77  57  85 /  30   0   0   0
WACO, TX              64  78  56  86 /  40  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             60  74  52  82 /  50   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            60  76  54  85 /  30   0   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX          60  76  54  84 /  40   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            64  77  57  85 /  40   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  77  55  84 /  50  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  78  56  85 /  50  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            66  80  56  86 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-
TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-
TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-
TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-
TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-
TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175.

&&

75/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
327 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A GAINESVILLE...FORT
WORTH...CORSICANA...CENTERVILLE LINE. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...EAST OF INTERSTATE
35. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT....EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...CENTRAL PORTIONS INCLUDING
THE DALLAS...FORT WORTH METROPLEX DURING THE MID EVENING...AND IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TONIGHT. HENCE...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON MONDAY.  AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE EVENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE RED
RIVER AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WITH FURTHER ACTIVATION POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER THIS EVENING.

42

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