Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.UPDATE...
QUICK CORRECTION TO PRODUCTS COMING OUT...UH OH IN THE COMPUTER
CAUSED MISSING SIX HOUR POP PERIOD.   84

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT 36 HRS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
NAGGING DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...WHICH IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPPER
HIGH CENTERS (4-CORNERS AND BERMUDA RIDGE). PER GPS-MET GROUND SITES
AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...AXIS OF 1.70-2.00 PWATS CENTERED ALONG/SE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND RIGHT OVER N TX...WITH A MID LVL DRYSLOT
OVER AREAS SE ZONES FROM TERRELL...TO CORSICANA...TO TEMPLE.

EXPECT LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT OVERNIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED DRYSLOT OVER
SE ZONES COULD RESULT IN WET... DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THIS EVENING.
ALONG THE RED RIVER...SOME DEFORMATION LIFT OCCURRING ON NW SIDE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH SFC-BASED CAPES AT/ABOVE 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND A DOWNBURST CANT BE
RULED OUT THESE AREAS AS WELL. WE HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS ALONG/SE
OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT DRIFTS SWD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SOME HYBRID-WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS (SIMILAR TO AN INLAND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CENTERS TOWARD
CENTER OF SYSTEM).

OTHERWISE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND NWWD TOWARD N TX BY SUNDAY WITH
CURRENT DISTURBANCE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY WWD AND WEAKENING. HELD
ONTO TO SLIGHT CHANCES SUN/MON...ESPECIALLY SE ZONES. AS FOR
TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...PARTICULARLY WITH
CLOUDS/TEMPS/RAIN CHANCES. ITS ANYONES GUESS WHAT PATH HURRICANE
EMILY TAKES. RIGHT NOW...TPC HAS HER GOING RIGHT INTO THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE OR LOWER TX COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE. OUTSIDE OF SOME
MINOR TWEAKS...HELD TO CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST WITH LOW POPS MID WEEK
FAR SRN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  93  76  96 /  50  30  20  20
WACO, TX              74  91  75  95 /  60  50  20  30
PARIS, TX             73  90  74  92 /  40  40  20  20
DENTON, TX            74  93  75  96 /  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  92  75  95 /  40  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            76  92  77  95 /  50  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  75  94 /  50  50  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  75  94 /  60  50  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            73  91  74  95 /  60  50  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE
STORMS THROUGH 9 PM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY.  THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN ATHENS
TO COMANCHE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE THREATS HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ091-092-152045-

COOKE-MONTAGUE-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEON...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
NOCONA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ERA...FORESTBURG...MUENSTER
AND ST. JO.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

65/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ102-118-152045-

TARRANT-WISE-
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER AURORA...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRIAR...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.  ANOTHER STORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR DFW AIRPORT.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AZLE...BEDFORD...EULESS...
GRAPEVINE...HURST...SAGINAW...SOUTHLAKE AND WATAUGA.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

65/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ094-105-152045-

FANNIN-HUNT-
322 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF DODD CITY...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BONHAM...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...CADDO
MILLS...CELESTE...DODD CITY...ECTOR...GREENVILLE...HONEY GROVE...
LEONARD...WOLFE CITY AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

65/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ104-152145-

COLLIN-
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEONARD...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MCKINNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FARMERSVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

65/DD