Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PUTTING THIS OUT A BIT EARLY...BUT WANTED TO DISCUSS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS REST OF THE WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON BEST INSTABILITY IS SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA...WITH
WEAK VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA IS
PROBLEMATIC WITH BOUNDARIES LIKELY MOVING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SO NORTHERN PORTIONS ARE UNDER THE GUN FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. CU FIELD IS LOOKING A BIT CONGESTED FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
MOUNT PLEASANT AT THIS TIME.

MY TAKE...
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SIMILAR TO THE
LAST TWO DAYS. ON SATURDAY...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...500MB TROF
STEEPENS ACROSS AREA AND FORMS A WEAK CUTOFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...I/M EXPECTING THIS TO
BEHAVE JUST LIKE A TUTT LOW...WITH CONVECTION ON THE EAST THROUGH
NORTH SIDE IN THE LIFT ZONE AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST. MOS OUTPUT GIVES
SATURDAY THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEK AND I WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY
TO BE FAIRLY WET...WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN SO FAR THIS WEEK.

MAIN THREATS WILL APPEAR TO BE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WET
MICROBURSTS...AND GIVEN SLOW NATURE OF CELL MOVEMENT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE
THE NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON SATURDAY IF THE HIGHER POPS
SCENARIO HOLDS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF SLIDES A BIT FARTHER WEST AND WEAK
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS FARTHER WEST. THIS MAY BE AN INDUCED RIDGE BETWEEN
THE ROCKIES LEE TROF AND THE TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY. AT ANY RATE...MODELS SEEM TO HOLD THIS
FEATURE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. AS LONG AS EMILY/S TRACK
REMAINS TOWARDS MEXICO THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
PLACE...REINFORCED BY SUBSIDENCE FROM EMILY OUTFLOW ALOFT.  84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  96  75  93 /  30  30  30  50
WACO, TX              75  93  74  92 /  30  50  40  50
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  92 /  30  30  30  50
DENTON, TX            75  96  74  93 /  30  30  30  50
MCKINNEY, TX          75  96  76  93 /  30  30  30  50
DALLAS, TX            76  97  76  93 /  30  30  30  50
TERRELL, TX           75  93  76  92 /  30  40  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         74  93  75  92 /  30  50  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            75  93  74  92 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/84

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

TXZ160-161-141900-
FALLS-LIMESTONE-
128 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 7 MILES
NORTH OF BREMOND...OR 15 MILES EAST OF MARLIN...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS.

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