Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS N TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...2800 J/KG ON KFWD SOUNDING
THIS MORNING...WITH A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS AND STRONG MORNING
INSOLATION. A FEW STORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW 60 MPH. HIGH
FREEZING LEVEL...INVERTED-V AND WEAK SHEAR SUPPORTS WIND THREAT
THE PRIMARY PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. 00Z-
12Z ETA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING AS H5 PVA WORKS INTO THE
REGION. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS TOMORROW AS THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AROUND TODAY.

ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
EMILY COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN N TEXAS WEATHER THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS BRING THE
HURRICANE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE ADVERTISED FRONT YESTERDAY.
THUS...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST.
PERSISTENCE USUALLY RULES IN SUMMER AND WE WILL NOT BEND THE RULES
YET.

80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  97  76  97 /  50  50  40  30
WACO, TX              75  97  75  97 /  50  50  40  30
PARIS, TX             72  95  72  94 /  50  50  40  30
DENTON, TX            74  97  73  95 /  50  50  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          74  96  73  95 /  50  50  40  30
DALLAS, TX            77  96  76  97 /  50  50  40  30
TERRELL, TX           74  96  72  96 /  50  50  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  73  95 /  50  50  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  74  96 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

80

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
222 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

TXZ104-119-131945-

COLLIN-DALLAS-
222 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MURPHY...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RICHARDSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALLEN...FAIRVIEW...
GARLAND...LUCAS...MURPHY...PARKER...PLANO...RICHARDSON...ROWLETT...
SACHSE...SUNNYVALE AND WYLIE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT...
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

65/DD

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