Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A TON OF CHANGES EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE OR THIS WEEK
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS SLOWLY TRUDGE
AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS NOT DOING A GREAT JOB OF
MOVING DENNIS AROUND...WITH THE ETA TRYING TO BRING IT FURTHER
WEST. SHEAR AND CAPE ACROSS THE REGION NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND
NEITHER IS LIFT THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...AS DEPICTED WITH ETA
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS. STILL...LIKE TODAY...AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL AS H5 RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
GIVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  76  98 /  10  10  20  30
WACO, TX              76  98  76  99 /  10  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             71  97  75  94 /  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX            75  98  74  96 /  10  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  74  97 /  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            77  99  77  98 /  10  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           75  97  74  97 /  20  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         76  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BONHAM TO KILLEEN LINE TUESDAY... AND ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION...IF ANY AT ALL IS NEEDED...WILL BE VERY LIMITED
THROUGH 9 PM.

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

TXZ146-111800-

NAVARRO-
1223 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KERENS...OR 14 MILES EAST OF CORSICANA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KERENS.

WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND HAIL TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM.

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