Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.UPDATED...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES STEADILY SOUTHWARD.  STILL EXPECT STORMS
TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...BUT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SLOW DIMINISH.  WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE WATCH
477 WORDING AND ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST OF KFDR TO SOUTH OF
KTUL... AND ALONG A DRYLINE FROM NORTH OF KDYX TO WEST OF KGPH.
ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS IS VERY UNSTABLE... THUS STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE KDFW TRACON THIS EVENING 04-07Z... AND INTO THE KFTW...KDFW
AND KDAL AIRPORTS 06-09Z. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE FRONT SHOULD FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER TUESDAY DAYBREAK.  IF THE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER OVER NIGHT... THEY COULD REACH THE KACT TRACON
AROUND DAYBREAK... BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
KACT TAF.

OTHERWISE... VFR EXCEPT KACT EARLY TUESDAY WHEN BKN020 ARE
EXPECTED.  SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT EXCEPT DURING THUNDERSTORMS WHEN
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY... 30+ KTS POSSIBLE AT METROPLEX
AIRPORTS.  FLOW BECOMES L/V OR NORTHEASTLY LESS THAN 7KTS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.  75

&&

.UPDATE...
430 PM...
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ON THE DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE
STORMS SHOULD GO UP QUICKLY WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT AND A
WEAKENING CAP.  WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
477 ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A SHERMAN...DECATUR...TO EASTLAND
LINE...VALID UNTIL 11 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
320 PM
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING.  MODEL MASS FIELDS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD FORCING DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE
SHORTWAVE.  AIRMASS ACROSS THE NW CWA IS WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES ABOVE 4000 J/KG.  MOST STORMS WILL INITIATE
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER ALONG THE FRONT WITH E-SE MOTIONS EXPECTED TO
BRING THEM INTO THE N/NE CWA THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN SPS AND ABI BEFORE SUNSET.  GIVEN THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND WEAK/MARGINAL WIND SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WILL TAPER POPS DOWN TO NIL ACROSS
THE SOUTH DUE TO A STRONG CAP STILL IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF I-20.

FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND BECOME DIFFUSE TUESDAY. JUST
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED.  UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A 700-850MB HIGH
SUGGESTS THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO WET.  BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SOUTH OUT
OF THE PLAINS AND AFFECT MAINLY THE NERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT UNCLEAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION/MOTIONS SUGGEST
KEEPING POPS LOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.  TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...A RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  GFS TRIES TO BRING
ENERGY IN FROM THE NE AND ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...
UPPER PATTERN WOULD FAVOR DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
WOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.  WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT
TREND TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL.

TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  92  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              74  95  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             71  90  65  93 /  50  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  68  93 /  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  92  68  93 /  30  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  92  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           73  92  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  95  70  94 /  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            74  94  71  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
840 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER THIS EVENING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE......DECATUR...TO EASTLAND LINE
WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.  LARGE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH AREA THEY SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS UNSTABLE AIR.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF I-20 EARLY
TUESDAY BUT BY EVENING...THE CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTH OF A GRAHAM...TO GAINESVILLE LINE
THROUGH 11 PM.  LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 11 PM
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

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