Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. UPDATED ZONES
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  #58

&&

.AVIATION...
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING...AND WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC/NAM/GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT
AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY BETWEEN KAMA/KLBB MERGES WITH CELLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SWRN OKLAHOMA. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SEWD OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES...WITH KACT HAVING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF IMPACT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...
WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CIGS FROM 01/06-10Z
FOR METROPLEX SITES...AND 01/09-13Z FOR KACT. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DIFFICULT FORECAST...AS IT USUALLY IS THE CASE WHEN INVOLVING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AMALGAMATE INTO A MCS THIS EVENING.  THE MODELS DO
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN WHERE MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS...WITH THE GFS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM (ETA).  CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
THE GFS MAY BE CLOSER WITH THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND WILL TAKE A
BLEND OF TRACKS FROM THE NAM/GFS FOR THIS FORECAST.  MCS SHOULD FORM
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LBB-CDS AND TRACK E-SE INITIALLY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE SW OF
THE CWA AFTER SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL JET FORMS...SO EXPECT MCS TO BEGIN
TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT AND HEAD MORE SSE.  THIS PATH WOULD DRAG IT
ACROSS OUR W/SWRN CWA...WITH THE SW CWA AT HIGHEST RISK FOR A BOW
ECHO/DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT.  30-40KT SEWD PROPAGATION SHOULD KEEP
THREAT OF FLOODING LOW BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  IN
ADDITION...SINCE THE PATH IS NOT SET IN STONE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A
SEVERE RISK WEST OF A GLE-DAL-CRS-CLL LINE IN CASE TRACK IS MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.  RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL BE TAPERED
MUCH LOWER TO THE NE DUE TO MORE STABLE AIRMASS/LEAST LIKELY TRACK.

AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BE SCOURED OUT AND WORKED OVER
TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND JUST LOW POPS WILL BE
NEEDED.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY SO TEMPS
SHOULD INCREASE...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP.  WEAK LEAD
SHORTWAVE MAY IGNITE A FEW STORMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF FOCUS/SUBSIDENCE WARRANTS JUST LOW POPS WEST.
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS CUTOFF LOW NEAR BAJA
EJECTS ACROSS THE STATE.  HAVE INCREASED POPS FRIDAY DUE TO GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH MODELS REGARDING THIS FEATURE.  TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE WESTERN US...AND ONLY WEAK IMPULSES THIS WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED...
SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION SATURDAY.  LACK
OF DRYLINE/SURFACE FOCUS SUN-TUE WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES
IDENTIFIED WARRANTS LEAVING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER
SHIFTS CAN IDENTIFY THE DAYS WITH BEST CHANCES.  OTHERWISE...LEFT
PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS...WITH WARM/BREEZY/HUMID WX.

TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  85  66  90 /  60  20  10  10
WACO, TX              65  86  67  91 /  70  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             66  84  64  88 /  30  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  84  66  89 /  60  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  85  66  89 /  50  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            66  85  67  90 /  60  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           67  85  66  90 /  50  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  86  66  91 /  60  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  85  68  92 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     TSTM WND GST 60 BRECKENRIDGE             32.76N  98.91W
05/31/2005                  STEPHENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GUSTS TO 60 MPH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

TXZ091-092-100>103-115>117-129>131-141-010500-

COMANCHE-COOKE-DENTON-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-JACK-MONTAGUE-PALO
PINTO-PARKER-STEPHENS-WISE-YOUNG-
1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR NOCONA TO
JACKSBORO TO RANGER AND CISCO.  THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  THE LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONTAGUE COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST
JACK COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

TXZ103-104-118>120-133-134-010645-

COLLIN-DALLAS-DENTON-ELLIS-JOHNSON-ROCKWALL-TARRANT-
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ERA
TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GODLEY TO 4 MILES WEST OF DINOSAUR VALLEY
STATE PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAINESVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRANBURY TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
GRANBURY. THE LINE WAS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ARLINGTON...CLEBURNE...DALLAS...DENTON...MCKINNEY...PLANO...ROCKWALL
AND WAXAHACHIE.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.

65/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

TXZ103-104-118>120-133-134-010645-

COLLIN-DALLAS-DENTON-ELLIS-JOHNSON-ROCKWALL-TARRANT-
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ERA
TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GODLEY TO 4 MILES WEST OF DINOSAUR VALLEY
STATE PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GAINESVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRANBURY TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
GRANBURY. THE LINE WAS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ARLINGTON...CLEBURNE...DALLAS...DENTON...FORT WORTH...
MCKINNEY...PLANO...ROCKWALL AND WAXAHACHIE.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.

65/DD