Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.UPDATE...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING.  THE BEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THESE STORMS AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT.  WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351
FROM ALL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES.  THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE HINDERED SOURCE OF
MOISTURE...SO WE WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

ONLY OTHER CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER POPS IN ALL
ZONES AND ADJUST THE WINDS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...SHOULD COME AROUND THE EAST AND THEN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THERE IS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
FORT WORTH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED
EARLIER...THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED
A TEMPO OF SHOWERS IN THE FTW TAF FOR THE 00-03Z PERIOD...AND LEFT
THE MENTION OUT THIS EVENING AT THE OTHER METROPLEX TAF SITES.  WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO MEMORIAL DAY...BUT TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IFFY...SO OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PROB30 AT THIS TIME...AS TO NO
OVERFORECAST TSRA. WILL BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS BACK INTO
THE AIRPORTS TOWARD 12Z...AND SHOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 17Z. #58

&&

.DISCUSSION...
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR ABILENE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS N TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  RUC INDICATES STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE SE CWA TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG A GRAHAM TO BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE WITH THE NEXT
SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.  EVEN FARTHER WEST
NEAR BIG BEND...WHAT WILL BE ANOTHER WEST TO EAST FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS IS NOW ORGANIZING.  THEREFORE HIGH POPS ARE
JUSTIFIED TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A PALESTINE TO WACO TO KILLEEN LINE.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXISTS TONIGHT SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO LAMPASAS LINE AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.  PRECIP TONIGHT NORTH OF I-20 WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED
OVERRUNNING RAIN ORIGINATING FROM THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH... HOWEVER ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER TOMORROW DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND/OR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTH CENTRAL/SE TX TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND WILL BE NEAR
TYLER AND SEASONABLY COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HAVE LOWERED POPS DUE TO PROGGED DOWNWARD MOTIONS...AND LEFT MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT ALL TOGETHER IN FAVOR OF A SCENARIO WITH JUST
SCATTERED WRAP AROUND LIGHT SHOWERS.

MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE DRY LINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES DOWN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
GOOD HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PLACED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  CONVECTION WILL
FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES EAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS.  KEPT LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIP IN WED...BUT A
DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR.  NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY TRAVEL TOO FAR
NORTH OF THE AREA FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS FRI-SAT
WITH BREEZY/WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THE RULE.

TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  80  64  86 /  80  30  10  10
WACO, TX              65  82  65  88 /  90  40  10  10
PARIS, TX             65  78  64  85 /  70  50  10  10
DENTON, TX            65  80  64  85 /  70  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          65  78  64  85 /  80  40  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  79  64  86 /  80  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  78  65  85 /  80  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  80  66  86 /  80  50  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  64  88 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
      THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDERSON...BELL...FALLS...
      FREESTONE...LEON...LIMESTONE...MCLENNAN...MILAM...AND
      ROBERTSON.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
748 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TXZ102-103-117-118-300145-

DENTON-PARKER-TARRANT-WISE-
748 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF PELICAN BAY...OR OVER AZLE.
THIS STORM WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AZLE...BRIAR...EAGLE
MOUNTAIN...AND RHOME.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
PERSONS ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THIS AREA...AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

65/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-175-300245-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-CORYELL-FALLS-FREESTONE-HAMILTON-HENDERSON-HILL-
LAMPASAS-LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-NAVARRO-ROBERTSON-
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #351 HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS.

THE COUNTIES CLEARED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...BELL...BOSQUE...CORYELL...FALLS...FREESTONE...
HAMILTON...HENDERSON...HILL...LAMPASAS....LEON...LIMESTONE...
MCLENNAN...MILAM...MILLS...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF A GEORGETOWN TO CROCKETT LINE.

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TXZ158-174-300430-

BELL-MILAM-
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1026 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARTLETT...OR 14 MILES NORTH
OF TAYLOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOLLAND...LITTLE
RIVER-ACADEMY AND ROGERS.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.