Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

.PUBLIC UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WATCH FROM SE ZONES. NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN ZONES WHERE CAPE HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED AND
OUTFLOW HAS PROVED ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM INITIATION. 80

&&

.AVIATION...
620 PM CDT

ERRATIC N AND NE WINDS METRO SITES...TO NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. ACT
STILL IN SE FLOW. AFTER DECOUPLING...EXPECT FLOW TO BCMG E WITH
INFLUENCE OF WEST TEXAS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SFC RIDGE NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AND
REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. AS HIGH PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...NE FLOW
WILL RETURN THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES DEPEND MAINLY ON MCD DEVELOPMENT NE NEW MEXICO INTO
PANHANDLE. WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS FOR DAYBREAK TSRA...DESPITE
50-60 POPS IN ZFP. WILL ASSESS FURTHER FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE WHEN
DAYBREAK PROB30 GROUPS WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED. 25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
307 PM CDT

MCS THAT MOVED OUT OF OK AND INTO N TEXAS WAS POISED TO MOVE SE OUT
OF OUR CWA BY 4 PM. NEW CONVECTION HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR KSPS. NEW
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF N TEXAS WHERE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE OF 3-4K J/KG. THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WHERE ALL MODELS BREAK OUT YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS TEXAS
WITH GOOD QPF OVER OUR WRN CWA. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OUT WEST
TONIGHT.

RATHER WET PATTERN LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THEN
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS N TX. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR THE
WETTEST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AIDING IN LIFT...BUT MODELS STILL
KEEP SOME PRETTY GOOD QPF ACROSS N TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ALL THE CLOUD AND PRECIP WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL...AND EVEN
BLOW NORMAL...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  /80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  80  63  81 /  50  60  50  50
WACO, TX              70  84  65  82 /  50  60  40  30
PARIS, TX             64  77  60  79 /  50  30  50  50
DENTON, TX            66  78  62  80 /  50  60  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  79  62  80 /  50  50  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  80  64  81 /  50  50  50  50
TERRELL, TX           67  80  63  81 /  50  30  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         68  83  64  81 /  50  50  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            72  85  67  83 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/80

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ133-260030-
JOHNSON-
633 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GODLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLEBURNE...GODLEY AND
CLEBURNE STATE PARK.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY BY
7 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ144-145-260100-
BOSQUE-HILL-
655 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 654 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF CLEBURNE STATE PARK...OR 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEBURNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR EASTERN BOSQUE AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTIES BY 730 PM IF THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS
INTENSITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS MAY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST HILL AND NORTHEAST BOSQUE COUNTY BY 730 PM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUM...WHITNEY AND LAKE
WHITNEY STATE PARK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
659 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ130-260100-
ERATH-
659 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF HUCKABAY...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HUCKABAY...LINGLEVILLE AND
STEPHENVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL            5 N COOL                 32.87N  98.01W
05/25/2005  0.75 INCH       PARKER              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

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