Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

.AVIATION...
EXPECT DEVELOPING MCS IN SOUTHERN OK AND NORTHWEST TEXAS TO BEGIN
AFFECTING METRO TAF SITES BY 19Z...WITH OUTFLOW AFFECTING KFTW AS
EARLY AS 1830Z. MAIN TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE 19Z-21Z
AND WILL PUT CATEGORICAL OR TEMPO GROUP IN TAFS TO REFLECT THAT
TIMING. AFTER ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX...MAY GET A BREAK
FROM CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KACT ARE LOWER...BUT BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFTER 21Z.    09

&&

.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE OK THIS MORNING...WITH N TEXAS
SQUARE IN ITS TARGET PATH ACCORDING TO CORFIDI VECTORS AND LATEST
88D TRENDS. ETA FORECAST CAPE IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH OVER 4000
J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE METROPLEX. CIN VERY BREAKABLE WITH LESS
THAN 20 J/KG. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTION...MORE LIKELY WHEN
CONVECTION...WILL BECOME ROUTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS THAT
MAKE IT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST TRENDS FROM 88D
NETWORK WOULD BRING THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE METROPLEX AROUND
NOON. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ADD SOME SEVERE STORMS AND TO
INCREASE POPS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NE WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS EXITS.
80

&&

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

LARGE MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TOGETHER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.  A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD
RE-FIRE THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH OF THE RED LATER
TODAY.  OUR ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NAM CAPES OF
1000 TO 3000+ J/KG AND FAVORABLE SHEAR... THUS SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
IS POSSIBLE.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR
DAILY CONVECTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.

A SECOND COOL FRONT WILL ENTER THE PICTURE THURSDAY.  WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER... CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION AND COLUMN
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THOSE OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF OR END AFTER TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MOVING BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  67  80  63 /  40  30  50  40
WACO, TX              94  70  84  65 /  20  20  50  40
PARIS, TX             88  64  77  60 /  30  30  30  40
DENTON, TX            91  66  78  62 /  50  30  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          91  67  79  62 /  50  30  50  40
DALLAS, TX            92  68  80  64 /  40  30  50  40
TERRELL, TX           92  67  80  63 /  40  30  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         93  68  83  64 /  40  30  50  40
TEMPLE, TX            95  72  85  67 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ091-092-101-251630-

COOKE-JACK-MONTAGUE-
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM RINGLING OKLAHOMA TO
JUST NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS TO HOLIDAY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MILES AN HOUR.  THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE.  AT THE PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT...THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MONTAGUE COUNTY AROUND NOON...NORTHERN JACK
COUNTY AROUND 1230 PM...AND NORTHWEST COOKE COUNTY AROUND 100 PM.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...MARYSVILLE...
MONTAGUE...NOCONA...RINGGOLD...ST. JO AND STONEBURG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

TXZ093-102-103-251800-
DENTON-GRAYSON-WISE-
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17
MILES NORTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE TO 13 MILES EAST OF BOWIE TO 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF JACKSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR DENTON...GRAYSON...AND WISE
COUNTIES. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS AFTER 115 PM.

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