Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REFLECT CLEARING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF WATCH 32.

42

&&

.UPDATE...
913 PM...
HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP AND CDFNT
TRENDS.  42

&&

.UPDATE...
614 PM...
UPDATED PACKAGE FOR WATCH 32.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
550 PM CST...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A WET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL INCREASE
TSRA CHANCES FOR ALL SITES AFTER 23/06Z...WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KACT...AND SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR BY
23/03Z AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...WITH LIFR LIKELY DURING PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

65/DD

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31 FOR THIS
EVENING.    42

&&

.DISCUSSION...
340 PM...
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A RAPIDLY CHANGING AND
HIGHLY MESOSCALE EVENT ON HAND.  UPPER LOW IS EDGING CLOSER TO
CALIFORNIA...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR TO OUR SOUTHWEST.  ONE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE...WITH A SECOND AND MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE JUST NOW
ONSHORE OF WESTERN MEXICO.  ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR LACK OF UPPER FORCING OR
DEFINITIVE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES HAS KEPT THINGS QUIET.  THIS SHOULD
CHANGE SOON WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE TO OUR WEST WHERE AN
ENHANCEMENT IN CU IS NOW SEEN AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES ACROSS.

THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING.  SPC HAS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN SLIGHT RISK AND HPC HAS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OUTLINED IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  STRONG FORCING ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRODUCE DEEP/STRONG CONVECTION.  HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF SEVERE TO
THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD ENTER FIRST AND THIS IS
ALSO WHERE SPC HAS THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  STORMS SHOULD
CONGEAL INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE NW WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATING EASTWARD MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT AT ONLY 10 KNOTS.  THIS POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ECHOS NORTH OF I-20 AND HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
ACROSS THE SOUTH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HELP FOCUS RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING WEDNESDAY...BUT HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY NEGATIVELY
IMPACT PROGGED INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR.  THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE
COOLER/DRIER THIS RUN AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE TREND OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN.  RIGHT NOW SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.  DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY
PULLED THE CHANCES OUT OF THE OTHER DAYS...BUT LEFT 10 PERCENT POPS
IN THE GRIDS.  SOME WARMER WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  60  40  50 /  90  60  40  10
WACO, TX              59  67  45  51 /  70  60  50  20
PARIS, TX             49  54  40  50 /  90  60  40  10
DENTON, TX            52  58  39  49 /  90  60  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          53  58  40  50 /  90  60  40  10
DALLAS, TX            57  60  40  50 /  90  60  40  10
TERRELL, TX           57  61  41  51 /  90  60  40  10
CORSICANA, TX         58  65  46  51 /  80  60  40  10
TEMPLE, TX            60  70  46  51 /  70  60  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...COLLIN...COOKE...DALLAS...DELTA...
     DENTON...EASTLAND...ELLIS...ERATH...FANNIN...
     GRAYSON...HOOD...HOPKINS...HUNT...JACK...JOHNSON...
     KAUFMAN...LAMAR...MONTAGUE...PALO PINTO...PARKER...
     RAINS...ROCKWALL...SOMERVELL...STEPHENS...TARRANT...
     VAN ZANDT...WISE...AND YOUNG.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL            2 N BLUE RIDGE           33.33N  96.40W
02/23/2005  0.75 INCH       COLLIN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTERS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     HAIL            SUMNER                   33.74N  95.67W
02/23/2005  1.75 INCH       LAMAR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SUMNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 AM     HAIL            4 W LEONARD              33.38N  96.32W
02/23/2005  0.75 INCH       FANNIN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
126 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     FLASH FLOOD     PRIDDY                   31.67N  98.51W
02/23/2005                  MILLS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD HWY 16 NORTH, ALSO ON FM 218

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