Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.AVIATION...AN MCS WILL AFFECT KACT THIS MORNING WITH TSRA AND
MVFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MCS WEAKENS.  KDFW TRACON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM WITH SOME PERIODS OF -RA / SHRA THIS MORNING.  KDFW
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA FOR KDFW TRACON THIS EVENING
04-08Z AS A S/W MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BOTH KDFW AND KACT LATE
TONIGHT. 75

&&

.DISCUSSION...
420 AM.
AS EXPECTED...AN MCS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY...AND MOVED NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM...WHICH LIKELY WAS SURFACED-BASED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BEGAN TO BREAK DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN...WIDESPREAD
SMALL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE THINK THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME MARGINAL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A TRANSITION
IN THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME SURFACE BASED IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION LIKELY FORMING NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH A
FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THE LIFT FOR THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL PARTIALLY COMES FROM A
TRANSVERSE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
MOVING ACROSS THE MEXICAN BORDER THIS MORNING. CURIOUSLY...THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT 700 MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT VERY
LITTLE CURVATURE/WIND SHIFT AT 500 MB. I HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM BEFORE. A RELEVANT EVENT THAT WAS SIMILAR IN NATURE WAS THE
5/5/95 MAYFEST HAIL/FLASH FLOOD STORM. IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THIS
KIND OF SYSTEM (STRONG AT 700 MB, WEAKER AT 500 MB) OFTEN ORIGINATES
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND/OR WESTERN MEXICO. COULD
IT COME FROM STRETCHING OF PARCELS (LEADING TO INCREASED VORTICITY
NEAR 700 MB) AS THE PARCELS COME ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS? IF SO, I AM NOT SURE WHY THE ENHANCED VORTICITY
WOULD SHOW ONLY BENEATH 500 MB...UNLESS THERE IS A RELATION TO THE
HEIGHTS OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHICH IS NEAR 700 MB.

BEYOND TODAY...THE MESOETA DEPICTS A SMALL MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EARLIER RUNS HAD SOMETHING
SIMILAR...MOVING ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM THE ARDMORE AREA...THEN
COMING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL QUIETS
DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE DRY LINE STAYS PUT IN WEST
TEXAS...AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES...AS DRY LINE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN MOVES OUT INTO
THE NORTH TEXAS PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THE
WEEKEND...ALL MODELS FORECAST A COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES.

GFS MOS TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWED CLOSELY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BE MADE TO MOS POPS.  #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  64  86  68 /  80  40  30  20
WACO, TX              78  65  86  69 /  80  30  20  20
PARIS, TX             75  59  84  66 /  60  40  30  20
DENTON, TX            77  63  87  66 /  60  40  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          77  62  86  68 /  60  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            77  63  86  68 /  80  40  30  20
TERRELL, TX           77  63  86  68 /  80  40  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  64  86  68 /  80  40  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  65  88  68 /  80  50  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-082100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
347 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT... BUT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF AN EASTLAND TO
FRANKLIN LINE MONDAY... ALSO GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  AT THIS TIME... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ141>145-156>159-081045-

BELL-BOSQUE-COMANCHE-CORYELL-HAMILTON-HILL-LAMPASAS-MCLENNAN-MILLS-
523 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LOMETA NORTH TO HICO AT 523 AM WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND AFFECT KILLEEN...TEMPLE...
GATESVILLE...MERIDIAN AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH 7 AM. PEA-SIZED
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

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