Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 100936
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

TXC099-101115-
CORYELL TX-
431 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 AM CDT FOR CORYELL
COUNTY...

AT 431 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN GATESVILLE AND 
OGLESBY.  LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN 
GATESVILLE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
GATESVILLE...FORT GATES...OGLESBY...AND MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3123 9767 3134 9743 3154 9757 3170 9769
      3146 9817

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED BEFORE SUNSET. WE MAY
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SINCE THERE IS NO BIG CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...HAVE JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO REFLECT
ON-GOING TRENDS. #58.

&&

.AVIATION...
735 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005
MODELS SHOW REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH. PUT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN WACO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF METROPLEX. COULD
NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT METROPLEX BUT THINK THE
PROBABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW SO IT/S NOT IN THE TAF. THERE MAY BE SOME
VCTS BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO MAKE THAT CALL SO LEFT THINGS VFR.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
317 PM
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT WILL TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER
MCS EXPECTED TO FLAREUP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
FALLEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS... THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION IS LESS THAN THAT OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS... AND IS EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
(500MB TEMPS WARMER A LITTLE PER THIS MORNINGS FWD SOUNDING).
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CWA AFTER WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF WARMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO CONVECTION... CLOUDS AND SATURATED
SOILS. THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO NORMAL FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...DRY AND HOT OVER THE WEEKEND.  NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
COME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO
OKLAHOMA AND A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  GFSLR HOLDS THE FRONT UP OVER OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE NEWEST GFS80... WITH THE AID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
OVER THE COOL-SIDE... DRIVES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE I-30/20 CORRIDOR
NEXT TUESDAY.  HAVE NOT COMMITTED TOTALLY TO THIS SCENARIO YET.
WILL REEVALUATE THIS TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  93  75  97 /  30  20  10   0
WACO, TX              72  88  74  94 /  40  40  20   0
PARIS, TX             72  95  72  98 /  20  20  10   0
DENTON, TX            72  93  74  97 /  20  20  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  94  74  98 /  20  20  10   0
DALLAS, TX            73  93  75  97 /  30  20  10   0
TERRELL, TX           72  93  74  97 /  30  20  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         72  90  74  95 /  30  20  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  85  72  92 /  70  60  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-
TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-
TXZ174-TXZ175.

&&

75/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
136 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-100830-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
136 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THOSE
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COMANCHE...WACO...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE LINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THOSE
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITS OVER THE STATE AND INTERACTS
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
SOUTHWEST OF A HAMILTON...GATESVILLE...TEMPLE...CAMERON LINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHERE SOILS REMAIN VERY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS...
HEAVY RAINS. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AS IS COMMON WITH SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE THAT
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS
LINGERING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BEGIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS SEVERE OR FLOOD POTENTIAL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...NAMELY
ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

05/