Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 270443
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

TXC503-270451-
YOUNG TX-
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE WEAKENED
AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.  THE THREAT TO LIFE AND 
PROPERTY HAS ENDED.  HOWEVER...COUNTY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS MAY STILL BE 
FLOODED.  REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE 
WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW 
YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3297 9881 3296 9840 3314 9840 3327 9873

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

.950 PM DISCUSSION...
WE ARE UPDATING THE ZONE AND GRID FORECASTS...TO INCREASE THE POPS
PRIOR TO 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL (YOUNG COUNTY
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTY).  WE ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE CENTRAL...
WESTERN...AND NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING THE DFW AREA.

FROM 06Z-12Z (1 AM TO 7 AM) WE HAVE INCREASED POPS IN MOST AREAS.
THE RUC FORECASTS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...LIKELY TO ENHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEMS WITH
TONIGHTS STORMS.

ONE PROBLEM THAT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO HANDLE IN THE SUMMER...IS
THAT THE INDIVIDUAL STORM CELL MOTION IS VERY SLOW...BECAUSE OF WEAK
WINDS ALOFT. THUS...MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL DEPEND
STRONGLY ON THE ABILITY OF NEW STORM CELLS TO FORM QUICKLY...AS THE
GUST FRONT/COLD FRONT SWEEP SOUTHEAST...FASTER THAN INDIVIDUAL
STORMS ARE MOVING. AT SOME POINT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
LIFTING MECHANISM (THE COOL OUTFLOW) COULD OUT RACE NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT. STILL OVERALL MOST AREA WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME
RAINFALL BEFORE IT ENDS.

.400 PM DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-SUMMER COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AT
26/20Z...IS PROGGED BY SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND DIABATIC EFFECTS WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWARD MOTION.

THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONE OF
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT.  THE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY NOTED FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD EXPAND WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTIONAL ISENTROPIC ANALYSES FROM THE GFS/NAM/UKMET
SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY EITHER A MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO A
RATHER ABRUPT END FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH POPS MAINTAINED FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVENING...AND EXPECT
UNSEASONABLY COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTH/ TO RESULT FROM THE LACK OF INSOLATION AND DIABATIC COOLING
EFFECTS FROM RAINFALL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WHICH IS NOT ONLY REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF
THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT ALSO REMARKABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THUS...WE WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING.  OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NOTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS EXHIBIT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE WILL SIDE WITH THE WARMER/DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  80  64  89 /  80  60   0   0
WACO, TX              76  83  67  92 /  40  70  10  10
PARIS, TX             65  78  62  87 /  80  50   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  79  64  89 /  80  50   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          66  80  63  88 /  80  50   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  80  64  89 /  80  60   0   0
TERRELL, TX           69  82  64  88 /  60  60   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         74  83  66  90 /  40  70  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            76  84  68  93 /  30  70  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH A
LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS...WACO...TO
ATHENS LINE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

79

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

TXZ100-270315-
YOUNG-
949 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAHAM AND SOUTH BEND.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.