Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 082116
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
416 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

SDC079-082145-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-050508T2145Z/
LAKE SD-
416 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR LAKE
COUNTY...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF RAMONA...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
NORTH OF MADISON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RAMONA AROUND 420 PM CDT
  NUNDA AROUND 420 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4391 9726 4400 9695 4419 9699 4419 9736

$$

08

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 082140
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
440 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

SDC079-082150-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-050508T2145Z/
LAKE SD-
440 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE STORM HAS EXITED THE COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4391 9726 4400 9695 4419 9699 4419 9736

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...WITH WARM SECTOR ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WEAK MOISTURE POOLING OVER
EASTERN CWA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TROF
AXIS WRAPPING NORTHEAST AROUND LOW PRESSURE SHOULD AID IN IGNITING
CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. MAY SEE TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT. ONE ALONG
TROF AXIS/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING  IN OR
JUST EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...AND THE OTHER NEAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
SHEAR/HELICITY. WHILE NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG
TORNADO THREAT...INDICES ARE DECENT ENOUGH TO MENTION POTENTIAL. AND
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR BY DOESNT HURT. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
CELLS MOVING INTO MINNESOTA ALONG TROF AXIS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS SIMILAR TO WESTERN SD TODAY. MAY INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS TO BE OUR QUIET
PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT MAJOR WAVE.

WILL STILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALL
AREAS AND HAVE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. MAY ACTUALLY SEE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND THUNDER OVER
WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR SFC BOUNDARY PLACEMENT...THE GFS GETTING OUR SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHILE THE ETA LEAVES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORTS SOMETHING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA.
BELIEVE THAT BY THURSDAY...FRONT COULD BE PUSHED THAT FAR SOUTH AS A
DECENT MCS SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPING PUSH IT SOUTH.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH UPPER WAVE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN THINGS SHOULD START TO CALM DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND. NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE WARM NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD SEE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS AND SHOULD BE DRY. HAVE TEMPERED
POPS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
SUPPRESS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS
SUGGEST. THE ETA ALREADY HINTING AT THIS WITH A LITTLE STRONGER PUSH
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WEDNESDAY INTO NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-091200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A LINE FROM HURON TO MITCHELL TO TYNDALL. THESE STORMS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH BOTH AREAS OF STORMS...THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO STORM LAKE LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM ALONG THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
BE LIKELY AFTER 4 PM IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BT