Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 122056
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

SDC005-122130-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0373.000000T0000Z-050912T2130Z/
BEADLE SD-
355 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT 
FOR WESTERN BEADLE COUNTY...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTH OF VIRGIL...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF HURON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROADLAND AROUND 415 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4422 9862 4420 9835 4461 9815 4463 9850

$$
RSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FIRE WEATHER FORECAST MAY NOT BE
AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOCUS TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS UPPER WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTERACTS WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH TO A SECONDARY LOW NEAR K9V9. FROM HEAR...
WE HAVE TWO CONVERGENCE AREAS EXTENDING TO THE EAST...THE NORTHERN
MOST NORTH OF BKX AND MML INTO CENTRAL MN...AND THE SECOND EXTENDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHERN IOWA. EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUSING POINT AS THE WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS
OVER MOST OF OUR SD COUNTIES...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING
THE LATE EVENING AS THE MAIN COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT EXITS OUR AREA.
BRINGING SOME HIGHER POPS BACK INTO THE WEST...MAINLY FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS NOTABLY ETA/ETA12 HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS LGT SHWR THREAT
CONTG NRN PART OF FCST AREA TUE MRNG IN ADDITION TO LINGRNG SHWRS
AND A FEW TSTMS SLWLY PULLING OUT OF NWRN IA AND ADJACENT AREAS.
WILL INCLUDE BOTH AREAS IN FCST...BUT EXPCT SUPPORT FOR BOTH SHUD BE
GONE BY 18Z. LO LVL MOISTR SHUD DVLP/KEEP SC/ST CLD DEC IN THRU MRNG
OVER FCST AREA WITH THESE CLDS DCRG BY MID/LATE AFTN. THEREAFTER
MAINLY MID CLDS PLUS SOME LO LVL MOISTR EXPCTD TO PREVENT SKIES
GOING TO MOCLR FOPR TUE NGT AND WED...SO THOSES PDS WILL START A
LONG STRING OF PTCLDYS IN FCST.

COOLER AIR OF COURSE WILL HAVE ITS GRIP ON AREA BY TUE WITH HI TEMPS
PRBLY CLOSE TO COOLR MET GUIDNCE UNDER CLD CVR. THEREAFTER VERY SLW
WARMNG ON HI TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS...COOLR AT NGT FOR A CPL DAYS THEN
SLW WARMNG ON MINS.

TSTM CHC WE HAVE BEEN CARRYNG FOR WED NGT AND THU CONTS TO BE VERY
MARGNL WITH AT BEST WEAK SUPPORT SEEN NOW. 00Z CANADIAN AND ITS BIG
PCPN AREA OVER OUR SERN FCST AREA LOOKED SUSPICIOUS AND ON NEW
CANADIAN RUN IS NOT THERE...WELL WEAKR AND S OF AREA ANYWAY. BECAUSE
OF WEAK LIFT AND VERY WK WAA ASSOCD WITH WAVE MAINLY MOVG N OF
AREA...WILL KEEP SLGT CHC IN...PREFER TO LOOK AT IT AS 80 PCT
PROBABILITY OF NO RAIN. OTRW PTCLDY FCST WILL GNLY CONT.

BIGGER QSTNS ARISE FOR PCPN LAST 3 DAYS OF FCST PD...SAT SUN AND
MON. A WEAK WV SHOWN BY GFS CUD CONCEIVABLY TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS
SAT...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT UPR TROF MAY APPROACH THE AREA MON. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN OUTR FOR SAT AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH
SUPPORT FAIRLY WEAK. HAVE ALSE KEPT OUT OF LAST DAY OF
FCST...MON...DUE TO VERY UNCERTAIN SPEED AND STRUCTURE OF ANY SYS
APPCHG. IN OTHER WORDS...MODELS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO PRESENT
CHANGING SOLNS NEXT SVRL RUNS. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH SOME COOLNG
FOR MON AFTER WARMUP THRU SUN...GFS SHOWING BROAD LOW S OF AREA
PROMOTING COOLER LOW LVL FLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HACKER/WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-131200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1140 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYNDALL AND SALEM IN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO
PIPESTONE AND WINDOM IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF
NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS THE
YANKTON AND SIOUX FALLS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN THESE
AREAS... REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM... WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL TO SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS OR A LITTLE LARGER... ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.