Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

NRLY STACKED LOW IN NERN NE WL MOV NEWD OVR MN TNGT WITH UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF LOW...TO WRAPAROUND SHWRS/SCT TSTMS
BEHIND LOW TNGT. HEAVY RAIN STILL PSBL WITH WRAPAROUND AS HAS BEEN
OCCURRING NEAR WINNER IN SCNTRL SD THIS AFTN...BUT APPEARS ENERGY
JUMPING TO EAST...SO WILL LET FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 PM. NUISANCE
WRAPAROUND SCT SHWRS STILL EXPCD TO PULL EWD THRU CWA TUE...BUT
SLOWER THAN CURRENT FCST. HIGHS TUES SHOULD OCCUR LATE AS CLDS
SLOWLY BREAK UP FM W TO E IN CWA DURG AFTN. THEN WILL KEEP THE DRY
FCST WITH WARMING TREND SPRDG EWD OVR CWA WED THRU WEEKEND AS UPR
RDG BUILDS OVER AREA. TREND IS FOR PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO BRING
BACK MORE HUMIDITY ALSO...SO GUID TEMPS...ESP LOWS...STILL LOOK A
LIT ON THE COOL SIDE. THERE IS THE OUTSIDE PSBLTY OF A FEW RIDGE
RIDING TSTMS ESP WITH NOCTURNAL JET AT SOME POINT...BUT WAY TOO
IFFY TO PUT IN FCST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6PM CDT FOR
SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

RSR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-141200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A MARSHALL
MINNESOTA TO SPENCER IOWA LINE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE
RISK AREA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS SITUATED NEAR I 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO ONE AND HALF INCHES WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

FURTHERMORE...WEST OF A BON HOMME COUNTY TO KINGSBURY COUNTY
LINE...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN SMALL
AREAS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

FLOODING...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL TOTAL OVER ONE INCH
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  RAINFALL RATES WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN PONDING AND FLOODING.

FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON PORTIONS OF THE LOWER VERMILLION RIVER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ON THE LITTLE VERMILLION NEAR SALEM...FIRESTEEL CREEK FROM MOUNT
VERNON TO NEAR MITCHELL...AND THE JAMES RIVER NEAR MITCHELL
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS THROUGH THE NWS
SIOUX FALLS INTERNET SITE AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
537 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             MONTROSE                43.70N 97.18W
06/13/2005  0.75 INCH        MCCOOK             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

0506 PM     HAIL             3 SW BERGEN             43.76N 95.04W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
538 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             3 SW BERGEN             43.76N 95.04W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0442 PM     HAIL             DICKENS                 43.13N 95.02W
06/13/2005  0.88 INCH        CLAY               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJF