Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST TUE AUG 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN ARIZONA TO FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST AREAS ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SURFACE HEATING. CURRENTLY WV IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIF AND
ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASED
FLOW AND SHEAR INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TODAY THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS DRYING TO THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHILE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
MOIST. SFC DPS ARE PROGD TO REMAIN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. ALSO
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE H85/H70 RHS. A WEAK H30 JETS
REMAINS OVER THE STATE AS WELL WITH DIV-Q INDICATING WEAK UPWARD
FORCING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION THRU THE WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL TO THE
EAST OF AZ EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT THIS WEEKEND. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CWA.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PHXWRKHWO DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 16 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-170700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SOME DRYING ALOFT. THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
MOIST. CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THREAT OF FLOODING HAS DECREASED AS THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FASTER
TODAY. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN... HOWEVER...FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.