Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 132135
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST SAT AUG 13 2005

AZC025-132145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-050813T2145Z/
YAVAPAI AZ-
235 PM MST SAT AUG 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 245 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 228 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 0.75 INCHES.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR CAMP VERDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LAT...LON 3466 11179 3454 11197 3439 11184 3452 11164

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT AUG 13 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z FGZ SOUNDING SHOWED A LITTLE DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS BUT PW REMAINS HIGH...AT 0.80 INCHES. INSTABILITY INDICES
ALSO REMAIN HIGH WITH LI OF -5 LI AND CAPE CLOSE TO 1600 J/KG. WEAK
H30 JET NOTED OVER THE NE CWA WITH THE REGION UNDER THE RRQ. AND THE
THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE RIM INTO THE WHITE MTNS TODAY.
STEERING WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE RIM AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN AGAIN WITH TODAYS ACTIVITY WILL
HEAVY PRECIP AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
IS SATURATED FROM THE STORMS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND RUNOFF WILL
BE EFFICIENT. GRIDS COVER SITUATION WELL. DF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z PACKAGE...A WET MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. TSRAS  WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY
18Z...AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LOWER CEILINGS TO OBSCURE SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PHXWRKHWO DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT AUG 13 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-140700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY NOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY UP TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GROUND ACROSS THE
REGION IS NEAR SATURATION FROM THE STORMS THIS WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED STREAM AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...LEADING TO
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.