Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KFGZ 021844
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1143 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZC005-021853-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-050802T1845Z/
COCONINO AZ-
1143 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 1145 AM MST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN...SMALL 
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM 
LOCATED OVER HUALAPAI HILLTOP. SOME INCREASED FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
HUALAPAI CANYON AND HAVASU CREEK DUE TO THE RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3610 11292 3600 11269 3627 11252 3632 11284

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE DAILY CYCLE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEBRIS CLOUD REMAINING. THESE
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY BY THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL EXPERIENCING VALUES IN THE 50S. MORNING
KFGZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING STILL EXHIBITING A DEEP MOIST LAYER...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS STILL SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
FAVORABLE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE PRESENT.
MEANWHILE...THE CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH REMAINS TO THE EAST
OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION...OVER THE GREAT PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS. GFS MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
THIS FEATURE IN THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD AND ENVELOPING MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THIS FEATURE...OR THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE MOIST AIRMASS SITTING ACROSS
THE STATE. THUS...WE WILL KEEP WITH OUR FORECAST OF MODERATE MONSOON
POPS AND TEMPS CONTINUING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z PACKAGE....EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY /ABOUT 18Z/ THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO REDUCED MORNING CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING EARLY
ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH. MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLIER...THEN
PROGRESS TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-030700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN THE LAST TWO DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WITH
SOME STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.