Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING THE DAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS. DEWPOINTS ALSO RATHER MOIST AT THIS HOUR WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXHIBITING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. AN EXCEPTION BEING NORTHEASTERN AZ WHERE DRIER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE IN THE 30S...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK
TO BE DIMINISHED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT THE INITIATION OF NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAG IN
DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING. REGARDLESS...CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A HURRY TO ADVECT
ELSEWHERE...SO CONTINUING WITH A MODERATE MONSOON FORECAST OF DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE NORM. ANTICIPATING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH ONLY MINOR
DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA AFT 19Z WITH BASES AROUND 15K FEET MSL. ELSEWHERE WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE 18Z AND CONTINUE WITH SCT
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH BASES BETWEEN 10K-13K FEET MSL.
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF AND TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. EXPECT STORMS TO DECREASE TO
WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFT 04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KD/TC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-310700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SAT JUL 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE LESS
NUMEROUS NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.