Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
930 AM MST THU JUN 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...A DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN...PUSHING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EASTWARD BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA. THIS
ORIENTATION WILL ALLOW A MODERATELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
PERSIST. CURRENTLY...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH MODEL FORECAST LIS BETWEEN 0 AND -3 ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL HEATING ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SO DESPITE WHAT MODEL
PRECIP FIELDS SUGGEST...THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR WHERE NEW
T-STORMS FIRST DEVELOP WITH INTENSITY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BRINGING
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WILL REMAIN ONE OF THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR TODAYS STORMS.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY HEAD
EASTWARD. IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...THINGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRY OUT OVER ARIZONA...BUT THIS COULD TAKE A
WHILE. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN AZ. HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
BEYOND...AND THAT IS LOOKING GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z PACKAGE...SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS MORNING
ROUGHLY WEST OF KINW AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE EAST
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS REMAINING OVER
THE AREA IS MOIST AND WILL FORM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...FORMING FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
BROADENING COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AND SMALL
HAIL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND 18Z BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 20Z. THE CHANCE OF TS AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION SECTION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

KD/ONTON