Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
1030 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN WITH
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE STATE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
STATE PRECIPITATION SUMMARY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WITH NEARLY EVERY GUAGE REPORTING PRECIP...GENERALLY .25 TO 1.0
INCHES. RADAR INDICATING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED NEAR
THE WILLOW FIRE BURN AREA...ESTIMATING 1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR...AND
PUNKIN CENTER REPORT OF 1.56 INCHES CORROBORATES ESTIMATES.

SO FAR...DYNAMICS APPEAR WEAK TO SUPPORT SUCH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP AS UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ONLY 20 TO 30 KTS
SO FAR WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION. DONT SEE THIS LETTING UP AT ALL
BEFORE BETTER DYNAMICS RESULTING FROM ADVECTION OF VORTICITY CENTER
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN YAVAPAI COUNTY AND
SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IMPROVING VERTICAL MOTION AND SPREADING
HEAVIER PRECIP INTO THE LCR VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...GENERAL
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GFS AND HPC PRECIP
FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH THESE AMOUNTS. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND
SNOW MELT ADDING TO THE RUNOFF...FLOODING LEVELS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO IF NOT EXCEEDING THOSE FROM THE END OF DECEMBER.

STORM SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS VORT CENTER MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE.

ONTON
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING ZONES 004>008-015>018-037-038.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

AZZ004>018-037>040-121400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
715 AM MST FRI FEB 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA...SOUTHERN NAVAJO...AND APACHE
COUNTIES...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOR MORE DETAILS SEE (PHXFFAFGZ).

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WET WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.